Big Picture – England look to channel 2009 spirit

If these teams have looked evenly matched, the numbers too back that up. Australia have scored at 9.4 runs an over this tournament, England at 9.2, the two highest run rates this edition. They have also produced seven individual 50-plus scores each, more than any other side. Their bowling attacks have been just as impressive, with Australia’s bowlers leading the charts with a combined economy rate of 6.2 and an average of 16.3 while England are close behind them at 7.1 and 18.9 respectively.

Australia’s greatest strength has once again been their depth, even without some of the players who defined previous title-winning campaigns. They’ve had runs coming from throughout the batting order, the bowling unit has combined discipline with accuracy, and their allrounders have excelled at both skills. Their semi-final demolition of West Indies was just another reminder that Australia rarely allow knockout matches to become contests.

England have been equally dominant, but there were questions over their reliance on explosive starts from Danni Wyatt-Hodge. They answered that in the semi-final, where captain Sciver-Brunt and Heather Knight combined for a match-defining partnership that reaffirmed England’s ability to win from difficult positions.

Australia will start as favourites, well, because they almost always do so. And particularly in finals. They’ve also repeatedly ended England’s ambitions on the biggest stage, in the tournament finals in 2012, 2014 and 2018.

The margins are likely to be thin, but the contest may come down to Australia’s disciplined bowling against England’s powerful top three, while England’s spinners will seek to unsettle an Australian top order that’s looked formidable. The Australian side has made winning a habit, but England have home support and momentum, and after their excellent semi-final comeback, the belief that they have the match-winners to keep Australia away from the trophy.

Form Guide

England WWWWW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
Australia WWWWW

In the spotlight – Sciver-Brunt and Mooney

Team news and likely XIs – Will Perry play?

England are unlikely to make changes to their XI.

England (probable): 1 Amy Jones (wk), 2 Danni Wyatt-Hodge, 3 Nat Sciver-Brunt (capt), 4 Alice Capsey, 5 Heather Knight, 6 Freya Kemp, 7 Dani Gibson, 8 Charlie Dean, 9 Sophie Ecclestone, 10 Linsey Smith, 11 Lauren Bell.

Ellyse Perry retired hurt in the semi-final chase against West Indies in what was described as a precautionary move due to “minor quad awareness”. She trained on both days leading into the final and came through a fitness test with no signs of discomfort as she batted and bowled in the nets, but her availability will be based on “how she pulls up”, according to captain Molineux. If Perry misses out, Australia may look to strengthen their bowling by bringing in legspinner Alana King, who has an excellent record against England.

Australia (probable): 1 Georgia Voll, 2 Beth Mooney (wk), 3 Phoebe Litchfield, 4 Ashleigh Gardner, 5 Georgia Wareham, 6 Annabel Sutherland, 7 Nicola Carey, 8 Sophie Molineux (capt), 9 Alana King, 10 Kim Garth, 11 Lucy Hamilton.

Pitch and conditions

Two of the three matches at this venue have been won by the chasing side, although England are the only team to have successfully defended a total after electing to bat first. The average first-innings score here is 158. Cloud cover is expected but the forecast is dry, with temperatures hovering around 26 degrees Celcius.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

“Being part of the 2017 final, we spoke in a similar way about how special a day it was going to be and try and be really present during the day and try and really help as much as we can, that was what I’ve been trying to instil in everybody.”
England captain Nat Sciver-Brunt

“It’s going to be a huge challenge. They’ve played some really brilliant cricket over the last few weeks and they’ve got the team in a really good place and they seem to be full of confidence. You add on to that 30,000 English fans here at Lord’s, we know it’s going to be an incredible challenge but it’s also going to be a really special day just to be involved in.”
Australia captain Sophie Molineux