X-factor NFL players who can swing the season for Super Bowl contenders: From Rams TE to DBs in New England

On-off splits can be noisy in football, which makes sense. There are a ton of variables in American football, which is what makes it so entertaining, and frustrating, to try to decipher and analyze. It’s a sport with 22 players chasing an oblong shaped ball made of leather, after all. And that’s before you sprinkle in those humans wearing stripes that always seem to have vision issues for three hours every Sunday.

Contenders in the NFL are spearheaded by their stars. But I wanted to look at some of the other starters who could help swing this NFL season for these teams with Super Bowl aspirations to dethrone the current champion Seattle Seahawks (their answer if they got a blurb in this article is Ernest Jones, by the way). I tried to avoid players that have already earned postseason accolades, but at times couldn’t help myself.

Their on-field impact might not always be felt, but their absence sure is felt when they aren’t on the field.

I mentioned a tight end when talking about the Rams! Drink!

In all seriousness, as much as the quantity of tight ends on the field for the Rams has been talked about, the particular tight ends they deploy should be emphasized just as much. Yes, the number of tight ends on the field will impact how defenses treat offenses, but each tight end’s particular skill set affects defenses as well. If a tight end isn’t fast enough to attack vertically or stout enough to hold up as an in-line blocker, then defenses will start disregarding them as threats and keying in on the offense in other ways.

Terrance Ferguson (and this year’s second round selection Max Klare) are players who can provide the athletic element that defenses have to honor when the Rams take off their wide receivers. But it’s Colby Parkinson who makes these Rams multi-tight end looks hum. Parkinson is an ace blocker at the tight end position who can block from in-line positions and legitimately hold up against edge defenders in the run game. That blocking ability keeps the run game menu open for Sean McVay and the Rams coaching staff. It also helps open up the passing game, particularly the vertical passing game, as well.

Watch No. 84 on this three-play sequence against the 49ers.

Parkinson is in the “Y” position as the in-line tight end on every one of these snaps. And he’s the (or one of the) player(s) who helps unlock each concept. He’s asked to block in pass protection on the first clip. With Ferguson working out to the slot, the Rams run a long developing play action that has Parkinson and another tight end staying in to protect. On the next play, he runs across the formation on a bootleg (which he gets the target on). And that space is helped created because it’s a legit run formation look and action from the Rams on that play. Because Parkinson is a valid blocker, and the Rams run behind him, the 49ers defenders bite hard on the backfield fake because it’s an actual run look they’ve seen before. And then, to cap off the drive, Parkinson run blocks at the point of attack on a zone run to cap off the drive. His work on his block with fellow tight end (Davis Allen) keeps multiple lanes open for Kyren Williams to cut on.

Those three plays are a nice microcosm of why those 13 personnel (three tight end) looks can work so well for the Rams; it gets Ferguson in space against a backup linebacker because the 49ers match with 4-3 personnel. And it has the added bonus of two tight ends working in unison to shore up the protection. The run formation and action on the next play has to be honored as well, because it’s something the Rams will run out of. And on the touchdown run, the extra set of sturdy hands helps create new points of strength and leverage for the offense.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JANUARY 25: Colby Parkinson #84 of the Los Angeles Rams runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship game at Lumen Field on January 25, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) — Colby Parkinson (84) and his versatile skill set helps unlock a lot of the Rams’ potent mix of concepts on offense.
(Ronald Martinez via Getty Images)

This is what McVay always strives to do with his offense: make defenses constantly have to prepare for multiple plays that are based out of the same, or similar, looks and personnel groupings. He makes rock, paper, and scissors all dangerous. And Parkinson is the player who epitomizes that triple-threat aspect of the Rams offense. Whether it’s his own statistics — Parkinson ranked second among 48 qualifying tight ends in successful targets per route run and fourth in first downs per route run last year — or with how the Rams operate and perform. The Rams’ designed run rate in 2025 on early downs (outside of the final 2 minutes of each half, garbage time removed as well) last year when Parkinson wasn’t on the field was 42.8%, which would rank 29th in the NFL. When Parkinson was on the field in those same situations, the Rams designed run rate jumps to 47.8%, just a smidge above the league average of 47.7%. I didn’t share those numbers, and the eye test, to say the Rams become a service academy offense when Parkinson is on the field, but more to illustrate that the Rams become more balanced, with every type of attack at the ready, when Parkinson is on the field.

Even the play-action rate of the Rams when Parkinson is on the field jumps up, from high (24.1% when Parkinson was off the field, which would rank fifth) to ridiculously high (30.8%, which would have led the league and been the third highest rate since 2019, which is the further TruMedia’s data goes back for play-action rates). It’s kind of fitting their run rate is almost exactly in the middle, because of the balance of run, pass, and the actions off of those plays, whether it’s play action, bootlegs, or screens, are all called upon in equal measures in the Rams offense. Which means defensive coordinators have to prepare for that much more every time they play Los Angeles, and defensive players have to be aware of every type of attack coming at them. The Rams’ offensive production was outstanding last year, and it only became more remarkable when Parkinson was on the field (6.7 yards per play, a top 10 number since 2013). And more explosive, too. That extra blocking in the run and pass games allows for longer developing plays to happen. And there’s proof in the numbers with this: without Parkinson, the Rams had a 10.4% explosive play rate, which would have ranked 14th in 2025. With Parkinson, they had a 14.5% explosive play rate, which would have easily led the NFL and been tied for the 13th-highest by an offense since 2013. The Rams’ use of tight ends gets constantly talked about, so let’s give a shoutout to the Arn Anderson of NFL tight ends in Colby Parkinson.

Defensive backs

The Bills offense, and who Josh Allen is throwing to, uses a lot of the oxygen when talking about Buffalo. While I do think the Bills still need even more injections of talent into their roster, that’s a conversation for next offseason. I also think there are plenty of solid-to-good players on this roster, along with an interesting new defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard. And oh yeah, an honest-to-God Kaiju playing quarterback makes the Bills hard to pin down this season.

Leonhard should help add more dynamism to the Bills front with the constant slanting of defensive linemen and creeper pressures he throws at offenses. He also gets the most out of his safeties and likes to get them near the ball (Cole Bishop should fit well in this defense). I’m curious how much Leonhard will lean into man coverage, as he is a Rex Ryan disciple and played plenty of man coverage when calling plays at Wisconsin. And the Broncos defenses that he was a part of over the past few seasons thrived in unleashing Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss in man coverage. The Bills have Christian Benford and last year’s first-round selection in Maxwell Hairston, who battled injuries during his inaugural campaign, at the cornerback position. The Bills drafted several defensive backs this year, a possible indicator that they’ll continue to lean into nickel and dime sub-packages in Buffalo (not too different than this entire decade under Sean McDermott anyway, last year notwithstanding, but with more crazy fists). So, it’s not really one player, but one aspect of the defense — what coverages does Leonhard lean into and can the cornerbacks hold up — that I think can really swing the season for the Bills.

WR Zay Flowers and the starting center

This one felt pretty simple to me.

Center is a competition between two new faces to replace Tyler Linderbaum: New offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford brought Jovaughn Gwyn with him from Atlanta, and Danny Pinter comes over from Indianapolis. Neither are options that have me over the moon right now. While I think Ledford is one of the better run game designers in the NFL right now and will get the most out of whoever is starting for the Ravens, who he and offensive coordinator Declan Doyle tab at the pivot spot is a key decision for their first year in Baltimore.

Now onto the Ravens pass catchers. As much as I like Rashod Bateman and will probably go to the grave still awaiting his breakout, the Ravens’ wide receiver room is thin behind Flowers. Fourth-round selection Elijah Sarratt is probably the most interesting to me: a potential ball-winning option for Lamar Jackson on the outside. I also want to see if Doyle will give Sarratt some power slot plays to take advantage of his size and ball-winning ability. But the rest of the room is really just filled with more ideas than things the Ravens can truly count on.

Al-Shaair would be the namesake for this article or award if I ever narrowed it down to one singular player, and he deservedly earned his first Pro Bowl nod last year, so he technically can’t be nominated on this list. But, let’s talk about Al-Shaair’s impact anyway. With the smorgasbord of stars and high-end starters that the Texans have up front and on the backend, Al-Shaair is the true glue in the middle to keep it all holding together for a defense that has been top shelf for the past few seasons, but might go supernova in 2026. With how the Texans play, Al-Shaair’s ability to be a two-way defender and help erase the middle of the field, blitz, and cover running backs are all key aspects for a defense that wants to constantly attack and swarm offenses.

The on-off splits for the Texans with Al-Shaair over the past two seasons do seem to track with what happens on the field. The Texans go from a solid, above-average defensive unit without Al-Shaair to the league’s best with him on the field:

	EPA/Play Allowed	EPA/Pass Allowed	Success Allowed%	Run Success Allowed%	Yards/Play	Sack%	Pressure%	Stuff%	Yards Before Contact/Run
With Al-Shaair (1406 plays)	-0.13 (1st)	-.10 (1st)	36.4% (1st)	33.8% (2nd)	4.8 (1st)	8.7% (2nd)	38.8% (6th)	20.9% (T-6th)	1.23 (T-5th)
Without Al-Shaair (573 plays)	-.02 (13th)	.09 (20th)	41.4% (11th)	40.9% (22nd)	5,4 (11th)	6.8% (15th)	34.9% (15th)	17.6% (22nd)	1.62 (23rd)

The Texans only have one new starter on their defense with the addition of Reed Blankenship (a move I really liked for Houston), and return their defensive staff. Their defense is shaping up to be an elite unit once again, and Al-Shaair is the engine that helps it scream forward.

The Texans’ offense will go as far as its run game takes it. I am optimistic in C.J. Stroud having a strong year (and I’d argue he had a pretty strong regular season in 2025, too). The offensive line does look improved, even if none of the additions are true world-beaters. But it’s better, and has better depth, than what the Texans have trotted out over recent years. This offensive line and run game don’t even have to be amazing to see real improvement for this offense and team, just above board. And I think they’re set up to do that.

Slot corner

I talked about the Chiefs’ offensive run game improvements in a recent article. I do think the Chiefs offensive line could be one of the game’s best next year, and Kenneth Walker provides something this offense has so desperately needed: the ability to create explosive plays. How, or if, the Chiefs evolve as they navigate Patrick Mahomes’ injury and whether there is a last twist of innovation for Andy Reid to sprinkle on the Chiefs’ offense will be fascinating to watch this year. I think a lean into the run game, and what really is the strength of their team outside of their all-time talent at quarterback, would be a welcome pivot in Kansas City.

The factor that can really change the vibe of the Chiefs season is whether the defense can get back to its chaotic ways. The usually devastating blitz packages from Steve Spagnuolo felt less venomous last season. Every metric dropped from “napalm” to “pillow-like:” the Chiefs had a 10.7% sack rate in 2022 when blitzing the quarterback, and that number was 6.2% in 2025. The Chiefs allowed 5.8 net yards per pass attempt when blitzing from 2021 to 2024. That number was 7.4 last year. While 5.8 is about the same as Kirk Cousins in 2025, 7.4 would have been better than Matthew Stafford. A friendly reminder: Stafford won MVP in 2025.

The Chiefs made big changes to their defensive back room and are replacing three starters. I think Nohl Williams is up for the challenge as he plays across from first-round selection Mansoor Delane, both players who can thrive on taking advantage of the chances that this defense creates. I suppose my short answer for my own question is just Kader Kohou, or whoever ends up starting in the slot for the Chiefs, so that includes rookie Jadon Canady and Christian Roland-Wallace as well. The Chiefs were outright bad against slot targets in 2024, with Chamarri Conner often getting picked at (Conner has now moved back to the safety spot.) I did think Roland-Wallace had some nice moments in 2025, so I’ll be keen if he gets more run in 2026.

I’ve spent a lot of time on the Chargers’ offensive additions lately, but their defense under new defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary is just as interesting. The Chargers operate like two different defenses when Teair Tart is on the field versus when he is off. Offense’s run success rate dropped nearly 10% when Tart was on the field in 2025 and their yards per carry drops over half a yard. Also with Tart playing, the Chargers’ stuff rate jumps from 17.9% to 24%, their yards before contact allowed drops from 2.1 per rush to 0.9. Over a yard difference!

Tart finally got a decent contract this offseason after years of enforcer play for multiple defenses. Dalvin Tomlinson should help eat into some of that run stuffing load, but how the Chargers play the pass under O’Leary will be just as interesting. But it’s hard for me to write an on-off split-based article without giving Tart a shoutout.

San Francisco 49ers

The spine of the defense

The entire spine of the 49ers defense is what will swing this season. First off, the health of Fred Warner matters more than anything. The Al-Shaair section with the Texans could be copy and pasted here because Warner has that same kind of, if not more of, an impact on the 49ers defense that has a lot of similarities in styles with Houston. Dre Greenlaw coming back adds familiarity, but where Greenlaw’s level of play is in 2026 remains to be seen. The 49ers have interesting young players in the defensive back room, but the old veterans will have to show they can continue to bear the load like they have in the past.

How the interior of the defensive line develops will be key for the 49ers to make a run this season, too (on top of the general health of their offense). Osa Odighizuwa is a disruptive defender who will thrive in the 49ers “shoot the gap and ask questions later” defense, but he’s never been known as a player who can hold up against the constant double teams interior defenders take. In theory, Warner will be there to clean it up, which he can, but for this defense to become more reliable in 2026, the other defensive tackles on this roster — Alfred Collins, C.J. West, or Gracen Halton — will have to earn their keep on early downs to keep offenses behind the chains.

The defensive spine includes the safeties, too. Safeties can help shore up any leakiness in front of them, and even add some extra damage if things break right in front of them. I’ve liked Malik Mustapha’s hard-hitting style since college and want to see how his pairing with Ja’Ayir Brown develops with some more steadiness in front of them.

I originally was going to choose Milton Williams for this one, but that felt like cheating. Hey, he may have gotten highly (and deservedly) paid, but Williams still hasn’t made a Pro Bowl. So he’s technically within the confines of this article! When Williams was on the field for the Patriots last year, he earned that paycheck. Opponents’ explosive runs went down. The Patriots’ stuff rate went up. Yards per carry went down when Williams was on the field by about 0.3 yards, despite the expected yards per carry (per NextGenStats) number of 4.3 remaining the same whether Williams was on the field or not.

Really either cornerback applies here as well because the Patriots are quite thin all over the defensive back room despite having quite a good group of starters. I even had a blurb on safety Craig Woodson, among a plethora of other young talented safeties around the NFL, last month in my defensive breakout player article, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Christian Gonzalez has already earned his postseason accolades and is in line for a big extension. He’s so long and fluid and constantly shows off a keen awareness for what offenses are trying to do against him. He can close space in an instant, making the separation that was once created seem like a mirage for quarterbacks.

His tag-team partner Carlton Davis is more of a scrappy handfighter. The bee sting to Gonzalez’s floating butterfly, if you will. The Patriots got 21 games out of Davis last year, which was the first time he hasn’t missed any time in a season since he entered the NFL in 2018. Gonzalez’s on-off splits can be researched because, well, he missed time. And boy were some of those on-off numbers were stark: With Gonzalez out, the Patriots’ defense allowed an 18.3% explosive pass rate — which would have been the highest rate in the NFL if extrapolated for a whole season. Yeah, yeah, sample size, opponent, but 125 dropbacks isn’t nothing! And the Gonzalez-less New England defense had an EPA per pass allowed of .10, which was the second-most in the NFL. One more to drive it home: the 7.8 net yards per attempt the Patriots allowed when Gonzalez was off the field would have been tied with the Cowboys defense for highest in the NFL (the 2025 Cowboys defense! Gasp!).

Back to Davis, he didn’t miss time in 2025 (again, hooray!) but he also has missed multiple games in every other season he’s been in the NFL (oh no!). I know I’m like a baseball player talking to his teammate during a no-hitter with Davis’ injury history, but the depth all over the back seven has me doing the McNulty wavers hand gesture. Especially at cornerback. There are pieces along the front that I do like, and I am especially keeping an eye on second-year undrafted player Elijah Ponder as a breakout candidate. And I really do like what the Patriots have done with their offensive personnel (Alijah Vera-Tucker could very well be another candidate for this section. The Patriots’ offensive line plan and, frankly, offensive plan could be a whole article in itself, but we still have training camp for that.) Any guard injury could also start the possible Will Campbell to guard and Caleb Lomu at left tackle experiment. Again, I’m getting ahead of myself. But there is a notable amount of thinness, figuratively, along what should be the thickest, literally, part of the Patriots roster. That goes for both their offensive and defensive lines.

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