More than half of the people whose asylum and visa claims will be rejected under tightened human rights laws will continue to live in the UK, according to the Home Office’s own assessment.

Documents released on Tuesday show that plans to set new limits on article 8 of the European convention on human rights are expected to result in another 11,700 people having their claims rejected.

But an impact assessment shows that 55% of those refused under article 8 reforms are expected to remain in the UK.

The documents were released after Shabana Mahmood introduced the immigration and asylum bill to parliament.

It proposes to charge asylum seekers £10,000 before they are given settled status, a new appeals system without judges, and new restrictions on trafficking claims.

Imran Hussain, the director of external affairs at the Refugee Council, said the bill could cause “chaos in the Home Office and for the next prime minister for years to come”.

He added: “It would create a whole new architecture of bureaucracy for the Home Office by building a new appeals system and imposing an unfair extra tax on refugees, while ignoring the poor quality of initial decisions that is actually driving significant delays and costs.

“Every day in our frontline services, we see men, women and children from countries like Afghanistan and Sudan, who have escaped torture, devastating war and persecution from brutal regimes.

“Like generations of refugees before them, all they want is to settle and stand on their own two feet, finding work in our NHS, our care homes and on our high streets.

“If the government is serious about building a fair and functioning asylum system, it must start by breaking the cycle of quick fixes and bills that create long term chaos.”

According to the bill’s impact assessment, the Home Office will see “an estimated 11,700 additional refusals due to the impact of the article 8”.

A Home Office internal analysis said “the proportion of refused applicants that remain in the UK after being denied article 8” was 55%.

An analysis by the department has found that 34,000 asylum seekers were granted the right to stay in the UK last year on the basis of article 8. It estimated that the lifetime cost of each migrant who invoked ECHR rights was £141,000 after tax.

The legislation will allow article 8 claims relating only to a tightened definition of a “core family unit” to include spouses, parents and children.

Those who establish families while living in the UK illegally will no longer be able to use their spouse or children to avoid deportation, according to the bill.

It will also change the Modern Slavery Act to end abuse of the legislation. Modern slavery claims will have to be lodged within a certain time after arriving in the UK and each individual will be restricted to one claim.

Ministers hope the bill will bring into force proposals that will create a firm but fair asylum system and reduce the pull factors driving illegal migration.

However, some Labour MPs are expected to oppose the bill over the strictest measures it will contain.

Last week the Home Office revealed it was planning to use more former military barracks to house thousands of asylum seekers after closing 20 more hotels in England.

A Home Office source said article 8 is a human rights route based on family or private life. Those affected by the changes include individuals seeking asylum and those wishing to remain on the basis of family ties.