The Netherlands won their group at the 2026 World Cup thanks to a 3-1 victory over Tunisia. In any other tournament, winning the group usually provides that side with what, on paper at least, is an easier draw. Yet this expanded World Cup has created what appears to be a two tier system in which some teams are rewarded and others aren’t. Hosts USA also won their group, but they have been rewarded with a 3rd placed team. Hosts Mexico have won their group and will face a third placed team. Had Canada won their group, they would also have been rewarded with one of the eight third placed teams.

Yet the Netherlands, by virtue of being drawn into Group F, had no chance of facing a third placed team. Instead, prior to a ball being kicked it was clear that if the Group’s ran as they should, whoever won or came second in Group F would face either Morocco or Brazil. The 2026 World Cup will now see four of its stronger sides battle it out, while other perhaps weaker sides on paper will be able to progress further by virtue of being in one of the groups that had a chance to play third placed teams.

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The extended World Cup has been great in some ways. Seeing more nations has been enjoyable and everyone has had their moments. But the extension has also created a system in which some teams are not rewarded as much for winning their groups as others are. It is clear that FIFA wanted the host nations to progress as far as possible, with their group winners getting to play third placed teams. With a round of 32 and only eight third placed teams progressing, this was always going to cause issues.

However, the Netherlands cannot complain too much. They knew the likely path to later rounds would require them to go through either one of the top teams in Africa or one of the top teams in South America. Yet, the reward for the Netherlands or Morocco in making it to the Round of 16 is a clash with either South Africa or Canada. Both the Dutch and the Atlas Lions will be confident that if they beat the other in the Round of 32 clash, the path to the quarter-finals is open to them. Win that, and it looks like it could be Germany or France in the last eight.

If you want to win the World Cup, you have to be prepared to face good teams. The Netherlands will be confident in being able to beat Morocco in a game that should be the headline clash of the first knock-out round. The last two games have been promising, with the attack starting to appear more fluid. However, Morocco will test the Dutch in ways that neither Sweden nor Tunisia were able to. It should be an intriguing game.

GBeNeFN | Ben Jackson