After 2026’s Operation Epic Fury and the F-15E rescue operation in Iran, the Air Force said it would keep the much-loved Fairchild Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II (Warthog) in service until Fiscal 2030. For years, the Air Force has been asking to retire all its Warthogs, only to be stymied by Congress for years. After Congress allowed the Air Force to begin phasing them out, it limited how many the Air Force could retire in a given year.

For many Warthog fans, the Air Force’s 2030 retirement decision came as an about-face and vindication that the Warthog is still relevant. But this is a sensational narrative that doesn’t fully track what the Air Force is actually doing with the aircraft. It also depends on what is emphasized. For example, the fact that the A-10 Warthog took part in providing close air support in the F-15E rescue op can be emphasized, or the fact that one was brought down, which almost made the situation far worse. Emphasis could be placed on the Air Force saying it will operate them until 2030, on its request to retire half of them in 2027, and on the fact that it graduated its final pilot in April 2026.

The F-15E Strike Eagle Downing

Credit: Department of Defense

Many of the details of the F-15E being downed by Iranian air defense remain classified and murky. However, enough is known to say that it is one of the most dramatic events in modern US military history, and it seems to be ideal material for a future movie. The downing and rescue efforts combine elements of the movies Behind Enemy Lines (2001) and Black Hawk Down (2001). The incident involved a US pilot who was brought down twice in the same conflict (once by friendly Kuwaiti fire).

While the downed F-15E pilot was quickly rescued, the extraction of the Weapon Systems Officer (WSO) involved a massive undertaking, and a multi-day manhunt had the pilot hiking through the mountains to avoid enemy capture. Reportedly, the WSO was a Colonel, an exceptionally high rank for a pilot for a combat mission. The Colonel also reportedly had an injured foot from the ejection and landing.

The Air Force marshaled a massive rescue effort behind enemy lines that included multiple specialized MC-130J variants of Super Hercules carrying Little Bird helicopters. Multiple fighter jets, including A-10 Warthogs, MQ-9 Reapers, and other platforms, provided cover for the daring operation. After the extraction, two MC-130Js with multiple Little Bird helicopters had been destroyed in place, and an A-10 Warthog had been downed. Fortunately, the A-10 managed to fly to friendly airspace before crashing, allowing the pilot to safely eject over friendly territory.

The Platforms The US Military Praised

Credit: US Air Force

From 2026’s Operation Epic Fury over Iran, CENTCOM explicitly singled out the LUCAS one-way attack drone as being “indispensable.” Ironic terminology for a system designed to be dispensable. LUCAS is a US reverse-engineered variant of the Iranian Shahed one-way attack drone. At around $35,000 each (depending on the variant, etc.), they offer the US a cheap, low-risk solution for hitting targets.

During a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, US Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach said the MQ-9 Reaper drone was the “most valuable player” (MVP) of the operation. This is despite the fact that they cost around $30 million each (depending on configuration), and that the US is thought to have lost at least two dozen during the conflict.

Seemingly as part of lessons learned, the USAF has doubled its planned purchase of F-15EX Eagle II fighter jets to replace F-15Es. It now intends to purchase 267 F-35EXs to complement its growing fleet of F-35As. Another seemingly Iran-linked development is the Air Force’s about-face on the E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C program. In 2025, it said it wanted to axe the program and move capabilities into space. Now it wants to restore funding for the program, which it had zeroed out in the first Fiscal 2027 draft. Largely missing is the Warthog.

The Performance Of The A-10 Warthog

Credit: US Air Force

The A-10 appeared in action in strafing runs over militias in Iraq; it was praised for its maritime role attacking Iranian speed boats, and it featured in the effort to rescue the downed F-15E WSO. It may have taken part in drone-hunting and other missions over Iran, although information is scant. But the F-15E rescue effort is where the A-10’s story becomes complicated.

As stated, the operation looked something like both Behind Enemy Lines and Black Hawk Down. The similarity to Black Hawk Down comes from the fact that a downed US combat aircraft attracted more combat aircraft that were downed in turn, making the rescue effort worse. While the A-10 likely provided valuable close air support to the F-15E rescue effort, it also nearly created another nightmare Mogadishu scenario. The stricken A-10 came down in Kuwait, but if it hadn’t managed to make it, one rescue operation could easily have turned into two.

The future of MEVEAC and other rescue operations is increasingly being seen as drones of various descriptions. In June 2026, an Iranian Shahed drone brought a US Army AH-64 helicopter down near Hormuz. For the first time in history, the pilots were rescued by a Saronic Corsair uncrewed surface vessel (USV), also known as a drone. In Ukraine, wounded are increasingly being evacuated with Uncrewed Ground Vehicles (UGVs) and Heavy-Lift Multicopters.

The A-10 Warthog’s (Possibly) Last Hurrah

Credit: US Air Force

Operation Epic Fury looks less like the vindication of the A-10 Warthog’s usefulness and more like a last hurrah of a legacy system heading for retirement. The A-10 proved itself useful in some environments, but also vulnerable. Importantly, while the Air Force returned to Washington praising LUCAS and MQ-9 Reapers and asking for E-7 and F-15EX funding, it asked to slash its Warthog fleet in half. This would seem a strange move if the A-10 had truly proved its worth.

The Fiscal 2026 budget allows the Air Force to reduce its fleet of Warthogs from 162 to 103, divesting 59 examples, around a third of the fleet. In the Air Force’s Fiscal Year 2027 budget request, it seeks to retire another 49 examples and only keep 54 in service. The intention is to have three A-10 squadrons of 18 aircraft each. Two will be based at Whiteman Air Force Base and one at Moody Air Force Base.

One of the two Whiteman squadrons is to be in reserve, while the other two are to be active. Under the current proposal, the Air Force would retire the reserve squadron in Fiscal 2029, leaving it with 36 Warthogs. The other two squadrons would stand down in Fiscal 2030. It should be noted that these plans are proposals, are being actively debated in Washington, and could change. That said, reporting by the Military Times suggests that the proposal is being well-received in Washington.

A Niche Use Case

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In the best case, Operation Epic Fury and the rescue mission demonstrate that the Warthog retains some niche use cases. But these are niche to the point that the Air Force only requires 2–3 residual squadrons until 2030. It may continue to be useful in low-risk environments (e.g., poorly armed militias), maritime operations, and drone hunting. Simple Flying has previously reported on the politicking about the A-10’s retirement and how the Air Force has been attempting to retire them since 1984, the year it received the final example. The Air Force never wanted the A-10.

Plans to phase out the A-10 continue to progress. In April 2026, the Air and Space Forces Magazine reported that the final class of new A-10C pilots had graduated from training, meaning that the Air Force does not intend to train any new pilots. The publication added that the Air Force “has started winding down some of the enterprise that feeds into and supports the fleet.“

In 2024, Simple Flying reported that the final Marine Corps pilots had graduated from the AV-8B Harrier. In mid-2026, the final Harriers were retired. But the Harrier is different as it’s being directly replaced by the F-35B. It remained in service for as long as amphibious assault ships were waiting for their turn to be retrofitted to operate F-35Bs (the final ship is entering refit now).

No Replacement For The A-10

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Critics point out that while the F-35A is marketed as the replacement for the A-10, its 25mm GAU-22/A gun with 182 rounds can’t possibly fill the role of the A-10’s 30 mm GAU-8/A Avenger gun with 1,150 rounds. The correct reply is “Yes, obviously.” The F-35A can carry out limited strafing rounds, but this is not what it is designed for. It is a stealth fighter intended to be flown as a stealth fighter.

The reality is that tree-top-level strafing in Close Air Support roles in highly contested airspace is dead. Even during Desert Storm, the A-10 relied heavily on AGM-65 Maverick missiles alongside its gun, rather than functioning solely as a flying cannon. It is politically difficult to admit that the cavalry will no longer be riding to the rescue in the classic tree-top-level strafing way many soldiers imagine. If nothing else, the A-10 is good for morale and signals that the “Air Force has their backs.”

But this is not limited to the A-10; the US military’s other great Close Air Support platform, the AH-64 Apache, has also been de-prioritized in the CAS role by the Army. It is still available to carry out CAS missions, but not as the treetop tank-buster popularly imagined. Instead, the Army is prioritizing deep strike, stand-off engagement, and drone teaming for the Apache. The A-10’s CAS missions are expected to be taken by a range of drones (from FPVs to advanced CCAs), artillery fire, precision munitions, high-end fast jets operating stealthily, and other platforms. None of these platforms will have anything like the Warthog’s famous GAU-8/A Avenger autocannon.