Don’t let the daily frenzy around SpaceX’s (SPCX) stock distract you from one looming reality: There are several lockup-period expiration dates coming, which could inject even more volatility into shares of the newly minted public company, as insiders will no longer be restricted from selling their stock.

22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson pointed out that there is a 20% insider share unlock after Space’s earnings announcement in early to mid-August. In addition, there is a 10% share unlock if the stock trades 30% above the IPO price (i.e., above $175). Finally, there are 7% share unlocks set for around Aug. 21 and then again on Sept. 10.

All told, insiders could potentially sell as many as 44% of SpaceX shares by early September, Jacobson said, increasing the current float by about 900%.

“Not only should these large unlocks likely put a fair amount of pressure on the shares, but the additional float added is likely to reduce the overall volatility in the name on a day-to-day basis given the large market cap in the name (once they have been absorbed),” Jacobson explained. “SpaceX bulls will point to the Nasdaq and MSCI inclusions that are likely to happen over the next few weeks that could help offset some of the upcoming selling pressure in the name expected by the unlocks. The problem with that argument is that both Nasdaq and MSCI will use the current free float in SpaceX and not the current market cap when determining the initial weighting for SpaceX.”

The market has heartily embraced SpaceX up to this point. SpaceX officially priced its stock at $135 on June 11, offering 555.6 million shares. The pricing valued SpaceX at $1.78 trillion.

SpaceX made its historic public debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, when the stock officially opened for trading around midday at $150 per share.

Driven by heavy demand from both institutional and retail investors, the stock steadily climbed throughout the session before closing its first day at $160.95.

SpaceX shares currently trade at $185, giving the company a market cap of $2.43 trillion.

“We see many high-growth avenues over the long term, though risk/reward appears balanced in the near term,” KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock wrote in a note on Monday.

Leshock initiated coverage of SpaceX shares at Sector Weight.

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.

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