Less than a month is left before three countries formalize their wish to renew or renegotiate the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Canada and Mexico have voiced their intention to sign a 16-year renewal, hoping to get some relief—eventually—from the tariffs imposed by the current White House.

Discussions about a new trade deal arrive at an interesting time, with the three countries hosting the FIFA World Cup, an ill-timed social media post from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting—again—that Canada would be better off as an American state, and new tariff threats from Washington.

Last week, Canadians were not in a particularly happy mood. More than two-thirds (68 per cent, up two points since mid-February) are following news related to the tariffs “very closely” or “moderately closely” and almost three-in-five (59 per cent, up three points) still want to request an independent dispute settlement panel under the terms of CUSMA.

The latest overture from Trump about annexing Canada is not resonating. As was the case four months ago, only 20 per cent of Canadians would agree to initiate a formal process for Canada to become an American state—a group that includes 32 per cent of Canadians aged 18-34 and 24 per cent of Albertans.

Agreement with initiating a formal process for Canada to join the European Union stands at 50 per cent, higher than it was in February 2026 and May 2025, and slightly lower than the results in March 2025.

This month, more than four in five Canadians (82 per cent, up six points) think the American tariffs are still a threat to Canada and half (50 per cent, down three points) consider the United States a military threat to Canada.

Our collective behaviour has not gone through severe fluctuations since February. More than half of Canadians (55 per cent, unchanged) have avoided purchasing goods originated from the United States, if a non-American alternative was available, and about a third (32 per cent, down two points) have cancelled a planned trip to the United States. Slightly fewer continue to shun American restaurant franchises in Canada (27 per cent, down three points) and American entertainment options (25 per cent, unchanged).

As our perceptions on collaboration with the United States remain sour, more than seven in 10 Canadians are in favour of enhancing trade with the EU (76 per cent, down one point), the U.K. (76 per cent, down one point), Australia and New Zealand (74 per cent, down three points), Mexico (74 per cent, up one point) and Japan (71 per cent, down six points).

A new question finds 59 per cent of Canadians voicing support for enhancing trade with China, while 28 per cent disagree and 13 per cent are undecided. Support for this course of action is highest in British Columbia (66 per cent), followed by Atlantic Canada (61 per cent), Ontario (60 per cent), Quebec (59 per cent), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (54 per cent), and Alberta (51 per cent).

More than seven in 10 Canadians who supported the Liberal Party in 2025 (71 per cent) would welcome more trade with China, along with 64 per cent of NDP voters and 52 per cent of Conservative Party voters.

There is a bit of good news for Conservative supporters in the data. While three in five Canadians (60 per cent, up three points) are satisfied with the way Prime Minister Mark Carney has handled the tariffs, the approval rating for Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre on this file is up by 10 points (40 per cent). In addition, 42 per cent of Canadians (up seven points) think a Conservative federal government would be better positioned at this point to deal with the tariffs implemented by the United States.

The way governments react to the final months of Trump’s tenure will continue to drive the narrative on the economic front, and complicate matters for the opposition. In British Columbia last month, 61 per cent of residents told us that many of the setbacks that the provincial economy has experienced can be blamed on the American president.

On tariffs, Canada’s current prime minister holds a commanding lead over the leader of the Official Opposition among Canadians aged 55 and over. While 69 per cent of these reliable voters approve of the way Carney has managed this file, only 30 per cent offer the same assessment of Poilievre’s performance. In fact, the level of “strong disapproval” for Poilievre reaches 40 per cent among the oldest demographic. It will be very difficult to stage a complete comeback until a new president—from whichever party—is sworn into office in January 2029.

Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.

Methodology: Results are based on an online survey conducted from June 1-3, 2026, among 1,001 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.