Oil Slips as Israel and Iran Halt Hostilities That Risked Talks

(Bloomberg) — Oil dipped after Israel and Iran agreed to end attacks against each other following an escalation of violence that threatened to derail efforts to end the war in the Middle East.

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Brent slipped toward $93 a barrel after closing slightly higher on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was below $91. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country is holding fire against Iran for now, but will respond should Tehran attack again. Iranian media conveyed similar sentiment.

The flare-up in hostilities put wider negotiations to end the war in the Middle East at risk, prompting President Donald Trump to appeal for de-escalation. A fragile ceasefire remains in place, but the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington, choking off supplies of crude, fuels and natural gas to global customers.

Reflecting remaining risk in the region, an unladen oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman was disabled by US forces on Monday after it “violated” the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port, US Central Command said on X. Israel’s military also intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” from Yemen.

Late Monday, Trump said the US will declare “total victory” in its war with Iran over the next two weeks, according to comments in a virtual campaign rally for South Carolina Republicans. He said that negotiations are underway with Tehran, and reiterated that oil prices will fall once the conflict is over.

Even if a US-Iran peace deal is agreed, multiple hurdles will impede normal resumption of oil flows. Among them, mines in Hormuz must be removed, shut-in fields may take months to restart, and damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes needs to be repaired.

Oil remains “headline driven,” said Al Salazar, head of oil and gas research at industry consultant Enverus. “We believe prices still need to be firmly in triple digits to account fully for depleted stock levels.”