Armenians are going to the polls in an election that could cement the country’s shift towards Europe and away from its traditional alliance with Russia.

Prime minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party enters the vote as the favourite, ahead of three opposition candidates who advocate for closer ties with Moscow. Pashinyan’s main challenger, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who built much of his fortune in Russia, has been forced to campaign from house arrest at his mansion outside Yerevan.

Much is at stake for the South Caucasus nation of 3 million people, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington all closely watching the vote.

A Karapetyan victory could set Armenia on a trajectory similar to neighbouring Georgia, where a billionaire with Russian-made wealth has spent years dismantling pro-western reforms and pulling the country back towards Moscow.

A strong majority for Pashinyan would give him a mandate to pursue his signature and politically sensitive goal: a peace agreement with Armenia’s longtime enemy Azerbaijan and the normalisation of relations with Turkey.

A former journalist who swept to power during the 2018 Velvet Revolution, Pashinyan has campaigned on a platform of peace, arguing that ending Armenia’s decades-long confrontation with its neighbours would unlock economic opportunities, improve security and reduce its dependence on Russia.

The prime minister, known for his populist and often emotional rhetoric, has sought closer ties with Europe, signalling that Armenia’s future lies in deeper integration with the west and expressing hope that the country could one day join the European Union.

Pashinyan has received an endorsement from Donald Trump, who described him as “a great friend and leader”. The US has taken on an increasingly prominent role in efforts to broker a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Sunday’s vote is the first national election since Armenia’s loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in 2023, a traumatic defeat that ended more than three decades of Armenian control over the disputed region.

The opposition has sought to portray the loss as evidence of Pashinyan’s failures, accusing him of surrendering historical Armenian lands to its enemies.

Yet Pashinyan has tried to turn the issue into a political asset. Arguing that Armenia’s pursuit of Karabakh helped trap the country in perpetual conflict and dependence on Russia, he has presented the painful chapter as the necessary starting point for a more secure and prosperous future.

Anahit Sarkisyan, a lawyer from Yerevan, said after casting her vote on Sunday: “Pashinyan has a vision for the future, the rest are stuck in the past. We can’t be in endless wars with our neighbours. It’s time to move forward”

Pashinyan’s course has put him in the crosshairs of Moscow, which has long projected influence over Armenian politics and the economy.

Many Armenians became disillusioned with Russia after Moscow failed to come to their aid when Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers in the region. The fallout prompted Pashinyan to suspend Armenia’s participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of six post-Soviet states, including Russia, marking the most dramatic rupture in relations with Moscow since the country’s independence.

In the run-up to the election, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said Armenia, which has not formally applied for EU membership, was heading down the same path as Ukraine.

“And where did it start?” Putin said, referring to Armenia’s EU push. “With Ukraine seeking to join the European Union.”

Armenian officials and analysts have accused Russia of attempting to influence the election through disinformation campaigns in favour of pro-Russian candidates, and efforts to fly Armenians living in Russia back home to vote against Pashinyan.

In recent weeks, Moscow has adopted a more overt approach, imposing a series of trade restrictions affecting everything from flowers and fish to fruit and Armenian brandy.

But these last-ditch measures have so far failed to put a dent in Armenia’s economy.

Buoyed up by strong economic growth following the influx of Russian businesses and capital after the invasion of Ukraine, Pashinyan has invested heavily in Armenia’s regions, where his support remains strongest.

Yet observers have also pointed to his increasingly personalised style of politics, and what critics describe as growing authoritarian tendencies in Armenia, a country that remains a rare democratic outlier in a region largely governed by strongmen.

In the run-up to the elections, Armenian authorities arrested opposition figures, including members of Karapetyan’s party, on accusations ranging from vote-buying and financial crimes to calls to overthrow the government. Karapetyan himself was detained in June and charged with calling for the seizure of power, leading him to campaign from house arrest.

Pashinyan has at times appeared erratic, engaging in ugly public disputes with refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, whom he accused of having “run away” from the region rather than staying to fight.

The EU, meanwhile, has largely brushed aside criticism of Pashinyan, making little secret of its support for Armenia’s shift away from Moscow. Brussels this week announced an initial €50m support package to help Armenia withstand Russian economic pressure.

Karen Grigoryan, a doctor, who voted for Karapetyan on Sunday, said: “Pashinyan is not the man he was when he came to power.”

Referring to the Ottoman-era mass killings of Armenians that Yerevan and many western countries recognise as genocide, he added: “We can’t just be friendly with Turkey and pretend the past is erased.”

Observers say many voters continue to back Pashinyan largely because the opposition remains deeply discredited and closely linked to Russia.

Tatul Hakobyan, a popular Armenian commentator, saidL “People are choosing the lesser of two evils. The alternatives to Pashinyan are much worse.”