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Behind the sovereignty referendum debate, separatist activists are organizing inside the UCP, raising questions about Danielle Smith’s leadership and the future of Alberta conservatism.
Welcome back to Adjournment Proceedings, our weekly long read series. We publish a new edition every Friday. In this week’s edition, we look at whether Alberta’s separatism movement is already reshaping the province’s political landscape.
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Canadians have likely seen the inescapable headlines by now: Alberta’s separatists want out, and Premier Danielle Smith has decided to hold a non-binding referendum on whether the province should have the decision to sign that divorce paper.
That means this fall, Albertans will vote in a non-binding referendum on whether the province should pursue sovereignty negotiations with Ottawa. The move followed months of pressure from separatist activists and came alongside changes that lowered the threshold for citizen-led referendum petitions.
Following that announcement, Prime Minister Mark Carney called it a “dangerous bluff,” referencing his experience with Brexit, something he said the U.K. is still grappling with to this day. It was also echoed by other western premiers including B.C.’s David Eby and Manitoba’s Wab Kinew.
READ MORE: ‘The premier doesn’t always take my advice’: Carney says Alberta referendum question under review
But, before Alberta decides whether to file for divorce from Canada, conservatives in the province are fighting over who gets custody of the governing party led by Smith.
Two battlefronts
Even if Alberta never leaves Canada, political observers say the movement is already reshaping Alberta politics.
Michael Solberg, a partner at New West Public Affairs and one of the organizers behind the advocacy group Vote to Stay, said there are two battles underway: the referendum and the fight for control of the United Conservative Party.
Starting with the referendum, both Carney and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre have said they will be spending the summer campaigning for a “united Canada,” pitting the two leaders against separatist organizers.
But that second battle could continue past the referendum.
Mitch Sylvestre, a business owner and the self-proclaimed leader of the Alberta independence movement, has urged separatist supporters to leverage the party by signing membership cards with the UCP to nominate separatist candidates, in an effort to push the governing party to adopt separatist-friendly policies.
While the problem isn’t an immediate one, the province is also in the process of redrawing its provincial electoral boundaries, ahead of the fall 2027 election.
“They have been pushing their supporters to buy up UCP memberships with the aim of being able to take control of board level functions and kind of a plurality of support for various nomination campaigns,” Solberg said.
Solberg said the major risk to the governing party now is that they could nominate candidates who are explicitly separatists under the UCP.
Trevor Lewington, former mayor of the southern Alberta village of Sterling, echoed a similar sentiment.
He pointed out that if the vast majority of Albertans have no interest in separation, it’s only going to “galvanize” pro-separation forces into being more “organized.”
“They’ve openly talked about deposing the premier as leader… bringing in people to constituency associations to ‘take over the party,’” Lewington said.
“I think a pro-stay vote could certainly lead to a civil war within the UCP,” he added.
On the other hand, Lewington said if pro-separatism ends up being successful, the push could also energize opposition to the movement, further reshaping Alberta’s landscape as support for an alternative political voice seeks to fill the centre ground.
Smith’s leadership
For Smith, the sovereignty debate has become a test of whether she can keep Alberta’s conservative coalition together.
Solberg said Smith appears to have hoped that by giving separatists a chance to debate the issue through a non-binding referendum, she could eventually put the question to rest and refocus on implementing the recent MOU with Ottawa.
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Instead, he pointed out that many separatist activists remain dissatisfied with anything short of an openly pro-separation premier and a legally binding path toward independence.
“What I think she was trying to do is give them a voice and finally give them the opportunity to have this debate,” Solberg said.
The challenge is that a failed referendum doesn’t mean the fight comes to an end.
Under UCP rules, constituency associations can push for a review of the leader’s performance, as long as more than a quarter of the party’s CA pass identical motions requesting one.
That means Smith could emerge from the referendum campaign only to face a new battle over her leadership with the party itself.
Unlike former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, who was ultimately brought down by internal divisions over COVID-19 restrictions, Solberg argued Smith has been more successful at keeping Alberta’s conservative coalition together.
However, the influence of the separation movement extends beyond the referendum itself.
Even as separatist activists organize inside the UCP and pressure Smith from the right, many Albertans remain focused on a very different set of concerns.
Edmonton Mayor Andrew Knack said residents are far more concerned about issues such as affordability, health care and education than constitutional debates.
“The priorities of Edmontonians have nothing to do with separatism,” Knack said in an interview with iPolitics. “They are not interested in this discussion at all.”
Edmonton, the capital of Alberta, has a population over around 1.2 million people.
Focusing on issues that Edmontonians are actually concerned about, he hopes it would “refocus” Alberta politics.
He pointed to the rising risk of wildfires, where the city welcomed many evacuees to their municipalities.
“These things aren’t stopping, these things are continuing and we need to take them seriously,” Knack said.
Knack pointed to deeper issues like climate policies and how it directly ties to affordability arguing that building more non-market housing and expanding transportation options would both lower costs for residents and reduce emissions.
