Big Picture: Ashes in the rear-view mirror?

But the lag has at least drawn the sting from some of the most salient post-Ashes talking points, though whether this is a good or a convenient thing probably depends on your point of view.

So far, so good for a project that doesn’t seem quite so hell-bent on inspiring and entertaining as was the case when Stokes and McCullum first came together four heady years ago. Instead, the focus seems to be on enduring and evolving which, as strategies go, is not to be sniffed at per se, but it does beg a few questions about the regime’s true motivations.

As Stokes put it, in his first press conference since January: “You’ve heard pretty much everything that you probably need to hear … words are done now.” Well, that’s us told.

Of course, Stokes has an important point, because as ever in elite sport, the best remedy for any heartache (or earache, or headache …) is victory. And the arrival of New Zealand, for their fourth visit in 11 years, brings to mind the circumstances of two of their previous three – most particularly that 2022 visit in which the Bazball revolution first lit up the English landscape.

England won on that occasion, and how! Three extraordinarily full-throttle displays, each of which featured moments of genuine peril that merely drove the players to ever more ludicrous responses. By the end of that summer, the misery of the previous winter’s Ashes had been buried in a mountain of bravado and goodwill – so much so, that England then made the mistake of claiming they’d played that way for the sake of the fans, when in fact their true motivation had been to feel alive again after the strictures of Covid.

New Zealand, as so often, are the subplot in England’s internalised drama, but they’ll happily slot into their habitual role of underdogs – safe in the knowledge that they possess all the weapons necessary to scupper this new hard-nosed approach at the very first hurdle, not least a rangy seam attack that will be perfectly at home in cool, showery conditions.

They have happy memories of England from their 2021 campaign, in which they went home with the World Test Championship trophy in addition to their series win, and though they are not the current holders of the recently minted Crowe-Thorpe Trophy, they did crush the Bazballers by a whopping 423 runs in their most recent encounter in December 2024.

These are the perfect opponents to stress-test England’s new attitude. Victory is expected but far from ordained. And if it doesn’t come to pass then, contrary to Stokes’ insistence, the talking may only just have begun.

Form guide

England LWLLL (last five completed Tests, most recent first)
New Zealand WWWDW

In the spotlight: Emilio Gay and Kane Williamson

For four heady years, England’s batting line-up has been built around vibes and potential. Fearless strokeplay, a willingness to run towards the danger, and a focus on what can be done when everyone gets the memo, rather than what needs to be done if – for whatever reason – they do not. Fairly or otherwise, Zak Crawley had been the focal point of that former approach until his post-Ashes banishment, and if the promise of his very best days offered some mitigation for his worst, he nevertheless ends his run in the side with an average of 31.18 in 64 Tests and a highest score of 267, which is scarcely distinguishable from his domestic record with Kent – 31.81 in 79 first-class matches, and a best of 238.

Team news: Baker likely to be cut from England’s dozen

England’s oversized squad of 15 players was, on Tuesday, whittled down to 12. James Rew, Matthew Fisher and Rehan Ahmed were returned to their counties, while the final decision was between “air-speed” and “nibble”, according to head coach Brendon McCullum. This essentially meant either the wicket-to-wicket methods of Gus Atkinson, whose Lord’s record – like that of Chris Woakes before him – was ultimately too sensational to ignore, or the spare seamer, Sonny Baker, whose raw speed could have proved handy if the weather had brightened up and the pitch went flat. Gay is earmarked for his debut at the top of the order, while Ollie Robinson is set to play for the first time in nearly two-and-a-half years. Shoaib Bashir, the forgotten man of the Ashes, is reinstated as the frontline spinner, having also missed the back-end of the 2024 Test summer with a broken finger. He could conceivably make way for Baker if persistent rain prevents the toss from taking place as scheduled.

England (probable): 1 Emilio Gay, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Jacob Bethell, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jamie Smith (wk), 8 Gus Atkinson, 9 Ollie Robinson, 10 Josh Tongue, 11 Shoaib Bashir.

Fresh from an untaxing but satisfying three-day win over Ireland in Belfast, New Zealand could reinforce an already potent bowling attack by unleashing their beanpole quick bowlers, Kyle Jamieson and Will O’Rourke – with a combined height of 13 feet – in what promises to be showery, seaming conditions. Both have been working their way back from back-stress injuries, but Jamieson in particular has a proven record in such conditions, with a player-of-the-match performance in New Zealand’s World Test Championship final win at a damp Southampton in 2021. Their senior spinner Mitchell Santner has also arrived with the squad after recovering from a shoulder injury, replacing last week’s debutant, Dean Foxcroft, who has flown home. He may get an outing if the conditions prove conducive. Nathan Smith, fresh from a six-wicket haul against Ireland, is fit and in form, while Matt Henry’s prowess is well known to these opponents.

New Zealand (possible): 1 Tom Latham (capt), 2 Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Nathan Smith / Mitchell Santner, 9 Kyle Jamieson, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Will O’Rourke.

Pitch and conditions: Look up, not down…

The 35-degree heat of late May has given way to the cloudy sogginess of early June, as the Test summer prepares to get underway in less than clement conditions. Given the nature of the Lord’s drainage, there ought to be plenty play in prospect over the coming five days, but the cloud cover promises to be a persistent factor even when the rain does stay away.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

“Honestly, it’s not rocket science. We know how to win games of cricket, but we admit that sometimes, especially over the past 18 months, we’ve contributed towards losing games of cricket on too much of a consistent basis.”
Ben Stokes acknowledges that England’s approach has contributed to their own downfall in recent campaigns.

“We know they’ve come off a series where, obviously, [they] didn’t perform as well as they would have liked and they’ll be hungry… They’re always a competitive side, regardless of whether we play them at home or over here.”
Tom Latham expects England to come out with a point to prove after the Ashes.