This story is Part 1 of the Road to the Referendum series. More information on what to expect from the series can be found here.

The fate of the province some five million people call home will be up in the air for the next five months, as Alberta voters mull a serious question: Do we stay or do we go?

For those wanting to separate, the work to make that a reality has been ongoing for some time now — and their efforts have run parallel to those working to keep Alberta in Canada.

It isn’t just high-profile leaders leading the charge — everyday Albertans are volunteering their time as well.

Morgan Schmidt has been stationed on Baseline Road in Sherwood Park, just outside Edmonton city limits, five hours a day for five straight weeks.

The grandmother says that’s how she earned her canvasser’s “glow.”

“This is just many many hours of being outside in the cold — it’s part wind burn, part tan,” Schmidt said earlier this year of her tanned skin, when old man winter wasn’t yet ready to give up his grip.

The independence cause has temporarily pulled her away from caring for her grandchildren, but Schmidt sees it as short-term pain for long-term gain.

“We have such a great opportunity here, and we could capitalize on it, if we could get Ottawa out of it,” she said.

Meanwhile, north of Edmonton in St. Albert, that vision for an independent Alberta is on full display with a half-Alberta, half-Canada flag flying outside one home.

It’s a visual nod to the transition the homeowners, Sheldon and Sharon Kok, hope is coming.

“We have a Canada flag that we can hang there as well, but we thought at this time… this is the appropriate flag for us,” Sheldon Kok said.

The couple, who have four adult children, is advocating for separation — but insist it’s not what they want.

“Canada has been our home for all of our lives and we have loved it dearly and we still do.

“We just don’t see another choice — another option for the future of our children.”

Their frustration with what they call dangerous federal policies and financial inequality has been building for years. For the Koks, the separatism movement offers a reset and renewed hope.

“We’re really hoping for that spiritual reset and better access to our resources, and the ability to bring our resources to market better and have better fiscal balance between the provinces,” Sheldon said.

“Even if it doesn’t work out, it’s not a waste of time. We are sending a clear message to Ottawa,” Sharon added.

An Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from May 22–24 after the province announced it was adding a 10th question to the referendum, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.

About 75 per cent of people whose minds are made up are deeply entrenched in their positions, unlikely to change their stance.

The needle has barely budged in months: In January, an Ipsos poll found about three in 10 residents supported independence, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.

A University of Alberta study, conducted prior to the latest referendum announcement, indicated 20 per cent of Albertans support separation.

As momentum grew last year around Stay Free Alberta’s petition in support of separation, former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk launched a campaign in May 2025, gathering signatures in support of Alberta remaining in Canada.

His Forever Canadian campaign quickly enlisted thousands of canvassers to hold signing events across the province.

In October 2025, more than 400,000 signatures were submitted to Elections Alberta and were verified shortly after.

But months later, many of those same volunteers are back out in Alberta communities, trying to shore up support and get people registered with the campaign’s official website.

The organization wants to be able to mobilize supporters for the fall referendum, after Premier Danielle Smith announced last month the question on separation would be included.

Brad Tomlinson started volunteering with the campaign when it launched in the summer of 2025. He’s back at it now, donning a Team Canada hockey jersey customized with “Never 51” emblazoned upon the back.

When asked what motivated him to act, he pointed to his family’s long history of serving the nation.

“I’m a Canadian first, I’m an Albertan second,” he said.

“My great-grandfather fought in First World War and in Second World War. My grandfather fought in the Second World War. My father served 20 years with the Strathcona armoured regiment.

“I was raised as a military kid, so we have a strong connection to the Canadian military.”

Tomlinson expressed fear over what could happen, should Alberta successfully gain independence.

“I think separation is going to be a disaster for any number of reasons… what’s going to happen, I think, if we separate, is we’ll be annexed by the U.S.

“I think that’s a disaster for this province.”

He also believes the premier has made it easier for so-called separatists to pursue independence.

“It makes me angry,” Tomlinson said. “The premier does not have a mandate to pursue separation.”

“If [Smith] wants to have a separation referendum, she should call an election, she should say that’s the main part of her platform and run on that.

“She’s out of line.”

Alexander Molochnikov volunteered seven days a week over the summer to collect signatures. He was motivated by his love of the country that became his home after fleeing the USSR in the 1980s.

“I know that we live in one of the best countries in the world,” Molochnikov said.

“My priorities, my values are freedom, liberties, ability to express yourself, ability to make a living. The reasons I was denied back in the old country.

“All the things we stand to lose — and I’m afraid we will lose if we separate — make me dead against it.”

Independence leaders, from The Alberta Prosperity Project and the Stay Free Alberta campaign, claim leaving Canada would stop federal equalization payments, reduce income taxes, boost spending and give Alberta full control over natural resources.

Those arguments resonate with some Albertans.

“An extra 50 bucks, 100 bucks, 200 bucks on their paycheques — that’s really meaningful stuff,” said Linda Stephens.

The realtor in Airdrie, north of Calgary, moved west from Ontario a few years ago and never thought she’d support separation.

But at 56 years old, she says she’s fallen further behind than she was a decade ago.

“We’ve lost that hope. We’ve lost that optimism that used to be there. That spark. People are just nodding in silence and saying ‘yep, just getting by, just getting by.’

“Albertans are saying, ‘We’re done, it’s not good enough anymore.’”

But that collective pursuit for change has made separatism supporters a target of personal attacks.

“You’re a moron, you’re this, you’re that, shame on you!” says Stephens, who calls herself a lone wolf in her family when it comes to her stance on separatism.

Schmidt said she’s also had negative interactions for supporting separation.

“We’ve had people call us traitors, we’ve had people yell in our face, we’ve had people give us ID — just to rip it out of our hands.”

They say the criticism hurts — but it won’t change their minds.

“I have to know at the end of this that I did everything I could to make this happen, because I believe in it so much.”

While separatists are passionate, so too are those who are fighting to stay in Canada.

Janis Kristjanssen felt an obligation to act on her beliefs and started volunteering as soon as the Forever Canadian campaign was launched.

“My motivation is that I think Alberta staying in Canada is far better than any alternative that’s been presented,” she said.

“Canada may not be perfect, but my Canadian values and the Canadian values of a lot of other people are that we’re a people who welcome newcomers, we appreciate people who don’t look like us, who don’t talk like us, [and] who may not worship at the same places we do.”

Charlene Belanger is a born and raised in Alberta and has travelled extensively across the country and the world.

She says those travels reinforced her belief that Canada is an amazing place to live.

“Honestly, it wasn’t really a question. It’s something that I feel very passionate about,” she said. “I have kids, and I want to see them grow up and have a future similar to what I had growing up.”

Belanger has worked in oil and gas and knows the struggles the industry has faced in getting its product to international markets.

“I can understand the concerns people have around pipeline access,” Belanger added. “But I really don’t think separating from Canada is going to get us what we want.

“I think it will put us in a position where it’s going to be more difficult to get the things we want.”

–with files from Karen Bartko, Global News