Sen. John Cornyn is just the latest high-profile Republican incumbent to learn that in today’s GOP, conservative credentials are no match for President Donald Trump’s undeniable grip on the current Republican Party. 

Cornyn has represented the Republican establishment for more than 20 years with a storied ascent from Texas attorney general to the U.S. Senate and Republican leadership. In the end, none of it mattered because Trump wanted him gone, branding him as disloyal. 

Cornyn is on a growing list of Republicans paying the political price after falling out of step with Trump. Trump’s chosen candidate, current Attorney General Ken Paxton, cruised to victory in the Senate primary runoff despite years of Texas Republican-driven impeachment battles and controversy.

Ordinarily, Republicans consider a state like Texas as safely in their column heading into a general election. Now, that assumption might need rethinking. 

To be clear, it will still be an uphill battle for Democrats trying to turn Texas blue. In past Senate races, Democrats have poured massive amounts of money, gotten national attention and seen lots of enthusiasm on the ground only to come up short. 

But Paxton’s vulnerabilities, coupled with Democratic nominee James Talarico’s potential to reach beyond the typical Democratic base, are giving some Democrats a level of optimism they haven’t felt in years.  

Talarico’s messaging could appeal to progressives, moderates, independents and even disaffected Republicans uncomfortable with Paxton’s controversies and Trump-era politics more broadly. 

And there is precedent for what Democrats are hoping could happen here.

Trump has pushed flawed candidates before only to watch Democratic candidates prevail in general elections — even in red states. Trump endorsed Roy Moore in Alabama 2017 and Herschel Walker in Georgia in 2021 in their respective Senate races. Both were on the receiving end of allegations of misconduct that they vehemently denied. Moore lost to former Sen. Doug Jones and Walker lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Cornyn’s loss may have created a political opening that Democrats haven’t had in Texas — a Republican nominee fully aligned with the MAGA base with vulnerabilities that could alienate enough swing voters and make this must-win race for Republicans a competitive one.