An anti-immigrant far-right party, inspired by Greece’s defunct neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, has made the biggest gains in parliamentary elections in Cyprus.

The group, which has pushed for the closure of checkpoints on the ethnically split island and is vociferously anti-Turkish, doubled its seats in the 56-member legislature after securing 10.9 % of the vote.

“We can say that Elam is the sole winner of Sunday’s election, with a clear victory that gives it an increased say in passing legislation,” the island’s predominant electoral expert Christoforos Christoforou told the Guardian. “It fulfilled its strategic aim of doubling its seats from four to eight and becoming parliament’s third biggest force, displacing Diko, which had held that position for decades.”

In results that will profoundly reshape the political landscape of the EU’s easternmost state, a new party of anti-corruption campaigners and social media influencers also won seats.

By contrast, centrist groups, including the veteran leftwing EDEK, which had endorsed the candidacy of the president, Nikos Christodoulides, as an independent in 2023, failed to cross the threshold to enter the house, a historic defeat that could further enhance the influence of Elam.

Parliamentary elections have long been seen as a litmus test of voter intentions for the presidency, the seat of executive power in Cyprus.

Ahead of the poll, mainstream parties were predicted to be hammered by the anti-systemic protest groups that have appeared amid disillusionment with traditional party politics and an elite tainted by scandal.

But while the newly formed anti-corruption Alma and the Direct Democracy Cyprus group of MEP and former YouTuber Phidias Panayiotou made it into parliament for the first time, the establishment parties defied the projections and held their ground.

Polling data released by the interior ministry showed the rightwing Disy and communist Akel parties winning 27.2% and 23.8 % of the vote respectively, a small decline for Disy and a 1.4% increase for Akel, with neither party losing a single seat.

The showing was interpreted on Monday as a victory for Disy, which aside from emerging as the frontrunner in the poll will be encouraged to field its own candidate when presidential elections are next held in 2028.

Christodoulides was a prominent Disy cadre before he broke ranks to run for the presidency. The 52-year-old had hoped he would win its backing when, as is widely expected, he runs for the post a second time.

“If Disy doesn’t support Christodoulides’ candidacy, his only chance for re-election, formally or informally, is Elam,” said professor Hubert Faustmann, who teaches history and political science at the University of Nicosia. “Elam has increased its political significance and he is structurally more dependent on them now … he will have to cater to them.”

Christodoulides has long been accused of flirting with Elam, formed initially as an offshoot of Golden Dawn by hardliners who have never renounced the party’s racist ideology.

Ministers with sympathetic views have been appointed to his cabinet, with his government priding itself on its tough stance on immigration.

Concerns are such that Manfred Weber, who heads the EPP of centre-right parties in Europe, reportedly warned the Cypriot president last month against deepening his ties with the extremists. Weber was quoted in Politis, the well-informed daily, as telling Christodoulides it would be “impossible for him to continue to be accepted within the European centre-right” if Elam continued to be viewed as his “closest interlocutor”.

Unlike Golden Dawn, whose leaders were handed lengthy prison terms for using the organisation to operate a criminal gang that sowed terror on the streets of Greece, Elam has eschewed political violence. “Its mindset is similar to xenophobic, rightwing parties elsewhere, but it is not known for the sort of violence associated with similar groups in Europe,” said Faustmann. “They’re kindergarden fascists.”

Christodoulides, whose country currently chairs the EU presidency, has neither openly addressed the issue of an alliance with Elam nor publicly responded to the speculation that reputedly drove Weber to intervene.

“The fact is he has never denied or rejected the idea of cooperating with Elam,” said Christoforou, the political analyst. “And on critical issues like migration he has shown he won’t hesitate to take decisions that challenge political correctness. I don’t exclude the possibility that he will openly collaborate with them even if it is his image that has always been his top priority.”