Victor Wembanyama willed the San Antonio Spurs to an epic, double-overtime win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference finals. NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the top-seeded Thunder must regroup to avoid a massive 2-0 hole before heading to Texas. OKC was mostly untested through their first two playoff series, sweeping both the Suns and the Lakers. De’Aaron Fox (ankle) missed Game 1 and remains questionable for San Antonio.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 217.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Spurs picks, check out the Spurs vs. Thunder predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-10 roll (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Top Spurs vs. Thunder predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Spurs vs. Thunder, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (217.5). The Under hit three of five regular-season meetings and would have hit in Game 1 had it ended in regulation. The Over has now hit in six straight Spurs games, snapping a 5-1 runs on Unders. The Over has hit in seven of eight OKC games as well. But defense ruled in Game 1, as the Spurs and Thunder shot 42.7% and 40.6%, respectively. 

The SportsLine model is projecting four Spurs players to score 13 points or more, led by Wembanyama’s 25.5 points. Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to lead the Thunder with 29.2 points scored, but just three Oklahoma City players are forecast to score 13 points or more. The teams are projected to combine for 210 total points as the Under hits in 61% of simulations, making it a great selection for anybody targeting NBA parlay betting. See the Spurs vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Thunder vs. Spurs at FanDuel here:

How to make Spurs vs. Thunder picks

After simulating each possession of Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Spurs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.