Chances are rising that an El Niño expected to form soon could become one of the most powerful such events on record, according to new data released this week.

The latest outlook from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows water temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean potentially reaching 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average late in the year. That could approach or even surpass the current records set in 1877 and 2015 and exceed the threshold for a super El Niño.