Florida begins a special session on Tuesday in what may be the last front of the redistricting war before the 2026 election, with Republicans trying to redraw maps to pick up more seats in Congress.

Lawmakers enter the session in Tallahassee cloaked in mystery, with no preview of a proposed map to consider and no clear path for Republicans to increase their representation in what appears to be a hostile year for their party.

After Virginians voted on Tuesday to redraw their maps, the nationwide back-and-forth redistricting between states with Democratic and Republican control has left the partisan balance for congressional seats nearly even. Donald Trump’s initial call for Texas legislators to add five Republican-leaning districts was answered by California redrawing its own map, and then Virginia answered changes in Missouri and Ohio with a new map that pulled four districts into expected Democratic gains.

Lawmakers in Florida postponed earlier consideration of a mid-decade redistricting while waiting for a ruling on a US supreme court case – Louisiana v Callais – which may invalidate parts of the Voting Rights Act and offer more room for mapmakers to make changes. But that ruling has yet to be issued.

The filing deadline to run for Congress in Florida is 12 June, and party primary votes are held on 18 August.

With little time left to make changes, the staff of Republican governor Ron DeSantis has reportedly been drafting a map in secret to be presented on Tuesday. A memo from state senate president Ben Albritton to members said “the senate is not drafting or producing a map for introduction during the special session. It is our expectation that … a proposal will be transmitted from the governor’s office to the senate for our consideration.”

Florida currently sends 20 Republicans and eight Democrats to Congress. Three of those Republicans – Cory Mills in central Florida, Anna Paulina Luna in St Petersburg and María Elvira Salazar in Miami – are in relatively soft Republican districts and are targets of Democratic congressional leadership for a serious contest.

Donald Trump’s favorability has fallen with the rise of gasoline prices, the Iran war, reaction to the Epstein files revelations and pratfalls by his administration. Increasing the number of Republican-dominated districts would require weakening existing Republican districts, a prospect that may lose some seats while gaining others.

Alex Alvarado, an influential Republican political analyst for the Civic Data and Research Institute, argued in a memo that an aggressive redistricting effort would result in three additional competitive districts but no net gain for Republicans.

House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York threatened a wider front in Florida if they enacted redistricting legislation.

“If Florida Republicans proceed with this illegal scheme, they will only create more prime pick-up opportunities for Democrats, just as they did with Trump’s dummymander in Texas,” Jeffries said in a statement following Virginia’s redistricting vote on Tuesday, naming eight Republican lawmakers from Florida who Democrats will “aggressively target”.

“We are prepared to take them all on, and we are prepared to win, he added. “Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time.”

Though Virginia’s mid-decade redistricting found approval with voters last Tuesday, it faces a legal challenge and the new maps are currently paused. The same is likely for any map the Florida legislature approves. A map adopted by the legislature must contend with the Fair Districts amendment, a state constitutional amendment Florida voters ratified in 2010 barring political gerrymandering.

Albritton’s memo notes that senators can expect to be deposed in the inevitable lawsuits to follow if they adopt a new map, citing previous litigation from the League of Women Voters of Florida. “We can only consider thoughts and feedback in keeping with constitutional standards. Senators should take care to insulate themselves from partisan-funded organizations and other interests that may intentionally or unintentionally attempt to inappropriately influence redistricting.”

Secrecy might provide plausible deniability in questions of “intent” under the law, and is ostensibly part of the strategy for getting the map through court – at least long enough for the 2026 election. DeSantis ultimately rejected maps drawn by the legislature in 2022 and presented his own. State senators were subject to discovery in the lawsuit, but the courts ruled that communications from DeSantis and his staff had executive privilege.