The AI trade is fueling the market to record highs despite Iran war


The AI trade has fueled the market to all-time highs, even with continuing uncertainty in the Middle East.

Fears of supply shocks for everything from natural gas to helium didn’t materialize enough to affect chip manufacturers and hyperscalers.

Since the March 30 bottom, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has surged more than 30%. “Magnificent Seven” components, including Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA), are all up by double-digit percentages. Even the once-battered iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) also rose.

Nasdaq 100 over past 13 trading days.
Nasdaq 100 over past 13 trading days.

Oil prices have remained volatile since the start of the war. But the tech sector’s high margin gives it enough financial cushion to absorb higher commodity costs tied to chip and server production for data centers. This extends to Asian economies reliant on Middle Eastern energy imports.

“From what we see as of today, these companies who need that helium and sulfur are able to pay up,” Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, said earlier this week.

“As you would appreciate, this is a sector which is, you know, making a lot of money for those economies, i.e. Korea and Taiwan,” Ahya said. “And they are able to bid up on gas prices, sulfur, and helium, and still managing their production lines.”

Read more: How to protect your money as Mideast turmoil fuels market volatility

Case in point: This past week, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) said during the chipmaker’s earnings call that near-term operational impacts were unlikely, given the company’s resilient materials supply chain.

“For specialty chemicals and gases, including helium and hydrogen, we source from multiple suppliers in different regions, and we have prepared safety stock inventory on hand,” CFO Wendell Huang said.

“In terms of energy, we work closely with Taipower and the Taiwan government to ensure a stable and sufficient energy supply,” Huang added.

Moreover, Wall Street has highlighted the hyperscalers’ recent race to secure energy supply. This includes long-term power purchase agreements for renewable energy that lock in electricity prices for 10 to 20 years, helping to insulate them from rising costs.

“This growing demand could accelerate the development of low-cost energy sources and technologies, such as carbon capture, energy storage, nuclear power and grid optimization,” Morgan Stanley researchers wrote on Thursday.

“Potential beneficiaries include companies involved in powering AI, natural gas, nuclear energy, power grids, clean energy and storage, energy security and carbon solutions,” according to the analysis.



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