Back when Prime Minister Mark Carney made the call to Rideau Hall to trigger a trio of byelections for Apr. 13, it was viewed as a make-or-break bid for the minority Liberals to secure a working majority in the House of Commons — if, that is, they could keep all three seats in the red column.

Although the Liberals were all but guaranteed to hold onto the Greater Toronto Area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University – Rosedale, which were most recently occupied by former cabinet ministers Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, respectively, it was — and is — too close to call the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne, which gave rookie Liberal hopeful Tatiana Auguste a single-vote victory over Bloc Québécois incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné last year, only to be overturned by the Supreme Court of Canada in February.

Fast forward to last week’s bombshell announcement that now former Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu would be joining the Liberal lineup, and it looks like Team Carney may not even need to win the rematch in Terrebonne to make it over the 173-vote threshold, as iPolitics’ Marco Vigliotti pointed out last week.

In fact, the new parliamentary math — and the likelihood that the Liberals will emerge with a majority regardless of the results in Terrebonne —  has “energized” the Bloc Québécois, Aya Dufour reports.

“(Bloc Québécois leader) Yves-François Blanchet told iPolitics many believe the latest floor crossing to the Liberals is great news for the sovereignists. ‘This strips the Liberals of their only argument in Terrebonne, where they’ve had nothing to say other than asking for a majority for Mark Carney,’ said Blanchet in French.

As per the Elections Canada byelection hub, the polls in all three ridings will close at 9 p.m., and while there’s a very good chance that the two Toronto-area ridings will be called well before the clock strikes midnight, the combination of what is expected to be an extremely close race between the two frontrunners and the 60-odd

-The polls close at 9 p.m., and while it’s a good bet that the Ontario ridings will be called well before midnight, the combination of the razor-tight race between the two frontrunners and the modified ‘write-in’ ballot needed to accommodate more than two dozen independent candidates associated with the Longest Ballot Committee, it could be a very long night in Terrebonne, Que.

iPolitics will have liveblog coverage of the byelections on April 13.

Also on the radar:

• Jobs and Families Minister Patty Hajdu stops by the University of Ottawa’s downtown campus to share the details of how the government intends to “take action to improve youth employment outcomes,” with local Liberal MP Mona Fortier also expected to be in attendance. (Monday a.m.) 
• Industry Minister Mélanie Joly will start the week in Montreal, where she’s booked in for an on-stage appearance at the International Aerospace Innovation Forum, a “flagship event” hosted by Aero Montreal that “brings together the largest number of aerospace decision makers in Canada,” according to the programme. (Monday a.m.)
• Newly installed New Democrat leader Avi Lewis will join the remaining six MPs elected under the party banner in the last election to unveil a “new initiative” that, as per the advisory, is “focused on the rising cost of living, including grocery prices,” as outlined in a soon-to-be-tabled motion to “rein in corporate price-gouging and make life more affordable.” (Monday a.m.)
• Although his office doesn’t typically release his itinerary more than a day in advance, the prime minister has preemptively set aside two days — Tuesday through Wednesday, specifically — to host his Finnish counterpart, Alexander Stubb, who is set to kick off his two-day visit to Canada with a tête-à-tête with Governor General Mary Simon before heading behind closed doors with Carney for what PMO notes will be “the first formal bilateral meeting” between the two leaders. (Tuesday a.m.)
• Later this week, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand will make the rounds at back-to-back fundraisers in the Greater Toronto Area — an evening reception at the city’s iconic King Edward Hotel (Thursday p.m.), followed by what will likely be a cosier gathering at a “private residence” in Oakville, Ont. (Friday p.m.), with both events operating on a “give what you want” ticket pricing system that nevertheless suggests a starter contribution of $1,000 per person.
• For his part, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will end the week by mingling with Winnipeg-area supporters at Piazza De Nardi, a local Italian food market. (Friday p.m.)

On the House of Commons to-do list: When the chamber reopens for business on Monday, the first item on the still-minority-for-now Liberal government’s agenda will be Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree’s stand-alone proposal to update the laws on lawful access by law enforcement and intelligence agencies, which is on track to make its second-reading debut tomorrow. (Monday p.m.)

Just before MPs headed back to their ridings for the two-week Easter recess, Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon served notice of his intention to kick off the opening round of debate on what he has dubbed the Strong and Free Elections Act, which includes new measures aimed at preventing foreign interference, impose new restrictions on donations made via cryptocurrency, money orders or prepaid credit cards and establish new privacy protocols for political parties.

Barring a last-minute scheduling change, however, that will likely have to wait until later this week, as Tuesday has been tentatively set aside for the first opposition-triggered debate of the new supply cycle.

A quick check of the notice paper shows that the Conservatives — who, as the largest opposition party, are traditionally given the first supply day of the season — have put three new motions on notice, although only one would be binding if passed: namely, a proposal to set up a “special committee with the mandate to study all legal, constitutional and political steps that can be taken to protect private property rights in Canada,” which, according to the preamble, was prompted by the landmark B.C. Supreme Court decision in Cowichan Tribes v. Canada, which “created massive uncertainty around fee simple property, the legal basis on which Canadians and businesses alike own their homes and land.”

A second motion would challenge the government to “cancel the Liberal high-speed rail contract and instead prioritise getting government out of the way, granting fast permits and low taxes to privately-funded construction of major projects that will deliver powerful paycheques to Canadians,” while the third simply calls on the Liberals to “adopt the Conservative plan to save Canadians 25 cents-a-litre by removing federal taxes on gas and diesel for the rest of 2026,” as well as “permanently” remove the “Fuel Standards tax” and the industrial carbon price.

Outside the chamber: Housing and Infrastructure Minister Gregor Robertson is set to appear before the TRANSPORT, INFRASTRUCTURE AND COMMUNITIES committee as part of its self-initiated probe into the Canada Infrastructure Bank’s decision to give a $206 million loan to the Mersey River wind project in Nova Scotia, which, as iPolitics’ own Aya Dufour reported earlier this month, sparked questions from opposition members over claims that several key players in the project “are connected to the Liberals,” including some who are related to former members of both the federal and provincial parties. (Wednesday p.m.)

Later this week, Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc will give INTERNATIONAL TRADE a progress report on the ongoing efforts to boost “free trade within Canada,” with representatives of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec and QSL International also on the witness list. (Thursday a.m.)

Also on the committee track:

• Members of the CANADIAN HERITAGE committee are set to circle back to their ongoing investigation into the “state of the journalism and media sectors in Canada” during panel discussions with representatives of the Canadian Journalism Collective, Hebdos Quebec, RNC Media and Rawlco Radio (Tuesday a.m.), as well as the Canadian Media Guild, Fédération professionnelle des journalistes du Québec, Independent Press Gallery president Sheila Gunn Reid and Macdonald-Laurier Institute senior fellow Peter Menzies (Thursday a.m.).
• Over at FINANCE, MPs will get a briefing on “household debt in Canada,” courtesy of senior officials with the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Statistics Canada, as well as Servus Credit Union chief economist Charles St-Arnaud, Consolidated Credit Canada and insolvency trustee Guyllaume Amiot. (Monday p.m.)
• Later this week, FINANCE members will question Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board senior managing director Michel Leduc about investments in Canada. (Thursday a.m.)
• NATURAL RESOURCES members continue to explore issues related to Canadian energy exports with Canada Energy Regulator chief economist Darren Christie, senior executives with Enserva and Indian Resource Council Inc. and a full contingent of senior departmental officials. (Tuesday a.m.)
• INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY members examine the “opportunities, risks and regulation of AI in Canada’s strategic industries” during back-to-back presentations from Next Generation Manufacturing Canada, Vector Institute, Bell Canada, Cohere Inc. and TELUS. (Monday p.m.)
• HEALTH members will survey representatives of BioCanRX, Canadian Association for Pharmacy Distribution Management and the Neighborhood Pharmacy Association of Canada, as well as Université de Montréal pharmacy professor Diane Lamarre, on “Canada’s pharmaceutical sovereignty.” (Tuesday a.m.)
• GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS AND ESTIMATES members dig into the details of potential budget cuts identified by the “comprehensive expenditure review” currently underway across the federal government with current Finance deputy minister Nick Leswick, as well as the heads of the Public Service Alliance of Canada and Union of Canadian Correctional Officers. (Tuesday p.m.)
• JUSTICE AND HUMAN RIGHTS members have blocked off at least two more meetings to go through the fine print of Justice Minister Sean Fraser’s proposal to boost child protection laws, add new offences related to gender-based and intimate partner violence and address issues caused by prolonged court delays, with legal and academic experts, as well as advocacy groups, expected to weigh in on the draft bill. (Monday a.m./Wednesday p.m.)

On the Senate side: Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson heads before ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES members to provide an overview of his plan to overhaul the Energy Efficiency Act, as outlined in a bill introduced in the Senate last fall. (Tuesday p.m.)

Rounding out the roster, the SPECIAL JOINT COMMITTEE ON THE EXERCISE OF POWERS UNDER THE BUILDING CANADA ACT, or BCAN, meets to discuss unspecified “committee business.” (Tuesday p.m.)

Elsewhere in the precinct:

• Representatives of the David Suzuki Foundation, Indigenous Clean Energy, Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment and the Climate Caucus brief reporters on their collective call for Canada to “invest in a clean, connected electricity grid powered by renewable energy while upholding Indigenous and workers’ rights” before fanning out for a full day of meetings with “dozens of MPs,” as per the advisory. (Monday a.m.)
• Euthanasia Prevention Coalition executive director Alex Schadenberg hits the West Block press theatre alongside Quebec-based physicians Paul Saba and Peter Blusanovics to highlight the latest numbers related to the availability and use of medical assistance in dying across Canada, as well as reiterate their opposition to allowing MAID “for mental illness alone,” before holding a “short rally” on the parliamentary lawn. (Monday a.m.)
• Mikisew Cree First Nation Chief Billy-Joe Tuccaro and “other community leaders” release the results of an “independent study to quantify the severity of (the) cancer crisis” in the northern Alberta First Nation, as well as “how much of it is caused by industrial activities,” which, according to the notice, will “show why the Mikisew Cree Nation are so opposed to plans by the government of Alberta to allow companies to release up to 1.5 trillion litres of ‘treated’ tailings into the Athabasca watershed.” (Monday a.m.)
• Later this week, New Democrat MP Jenny Kwan will join representatives of the Palestinian Students and Scholars at Risk Network, Canadian Muslim Public Affairs Council and Oxfam Canada, as well as “academic supporters and an affected Palestinian student” to provide an update on a new push to secure a Federal Court order to compel the government to take action on “prolonged study permit delays.” (Tuesday a.m.)