Consumer confidence has been holding up, but maybe not for long and that’s bad news for shoe shopping.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ticked up 0.8 points to 91.8 in March, but respondents’ outlook over the next six months leaned toward pessimism. Data for the Expectations Index indicated that net perceptions of labor market and household income conditions six months from now were edging downward. Moreover, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to dip in six of eight income groups. Only consumers earnings $25,000 to $34,999 and $125,000 and over were somewhat more optimistic, the Conference Board said.

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably,” said Dana M. Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist.

Given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when U.S. consumers were awaiting more tariff announcements from the U.S. federal government. The share of consumers who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” rose, while those who said “somewhat likely” or “not likely” fell.

A report from Wells Fargo Economists on their April outlook for the U.S. economy noted that while consumer spending is resilient, it also looks “shaky.” It noted that spending has so far absorbed higher gas prices, “we expect a more visible hit over the next month as energy costs spill into other categories. Households will increasingly prioritize expenditures on gas and food, crowding out discretionary demand and slowing overall consumption.”

The lack of income growth is also a contributing factor on spending. A report from the U.S. Department of Labor said Friday that earnings for all employees fell 0.6 percent in March from February levels. A separate report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that labor market expectations saw a modest slowdown as earnings growth expectations fell, while confidence in finding new employment weakened in February.

As for shoe businesses, Footwear Distributors and Retailers Association (FDRA) president Matt Priest said: “Our members are doing less with more, and so they’re not looking necessarily to hire. They’re looking to continue to do what they’re doing at the current personnel levels that they have.” Priest made those comments last month at an FDRA press briefing that provided an update on tariffs and the footwear sector.

An FDRA report on the impact of oil rate increases suggests that elevated increases will result in higher costs for inputs and production, as oil is used in every area of the footwear supply chain. Those additional increases will translate into higher FOB (freight on board) costs, meaning that shoe prices could see increases by this summer, or more likely for goods shipping for the Fall/Winter selling season.

Shoe prices at retail are already on the rise, up 2.4 percent year-over-year in March, according to the FDRA. Increases were seen across men’s, women’s, and kids’ shoes.

What could help is a booming jobs market, but that’s not the expectation. The Conference Board Employment Trends Index fell in March to 105.72, and the Index falls, that suggests employment is not growing. Whether the March data point becomes a turning point in the Index remains to be seem. If April also shows a decline, that could mean job losses will occur in the coming months.

“Job seekers continue to face a challenging market,” Conference Board economist Mitchell Barnes said. “This is evident in the ETI (Employment Trends Index) as several components moderated in March. Overall, the U.S. economy has remained suprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers.”