The Ras Laffan LNG export terminal in Qatar, the world’s largest such facility, has taken a large segment of its operations offline, and operator QatarEnergy has said it may need to declare force majeure on shipments five years out. Two major aluminum smelters, one in the UAE and one in Bahrain, have seen significant disruptions to their output. Oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have suspended operations after drone strikes.

In a March 25 client note, energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimated that the Gulf was facing a roughly $25 billion bill to repair key infrastructure.

Read more: What an extended war with Iran could mean for gas prices

“While some assets may be restored within months, others could remain offline for years,” Audun Martinsen, head of supply chain research at Rystad, said. “Beyond the status of the Strait of Hormuz, every day of damaged or shut-in infrastructure pushes pre-war production capacity further out of reach.”

The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG flows traverse — remains essentially closed, setting off an oil supply shock.

To the west, the Yemen-based Houthis announced in March that they were entering the conflict. This could threaten the 7 million barrels of oil per day that Saudi Arabia is redirecting to ship via the Red Sea.

“I don’t think you really compare this with any disruption in the past,” Gareth Ramsay, chief economist at BP, said at the recent CERAWeek conference. The disruption is “every analyst’s study piece, or worst nightmare that we thought could never happen.”

All of this has left the market guessing where the war goes from here.

In the hours after Trump’s Wednesday speech, oil prices soared and equity futures turned deeply into the red on the implication that the US will attempt to escalate the war before ending it.

The president signaled throughout last week that he may consider a US withdrawal without resolving the Strait of Hormuz, telling European and Gulf states to “take it, protect it, use it for yourselves.”

In a Truth Social post Friday morning, however, Trump wrote, “With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE.”

Market strategists who spoke with Yahoo Finance have repeatedly pointed to difficulty in solving the largest Middle East conflict since the Iraq War. Even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, its damage and the fears it has instilled in the market will last for months, if not years, they said.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Yahoo Finance that war isn’t like tariff negotiations, where the president can play fast and loose to look for leverage and preferred outcomes.

“You can’t get an oil tanker from the Persian Gulf to Singapore with the stroke of a pen,” Sosnick said.

Jake Conley is a breaking news reporter covering US equities for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @byjakeconley or email him at jake.conley@yahooinc.com.

Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance