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With the global airline industry facing an increasingly inevitable shortage in available jet fuel in the coming months, some carriers are set to be impacted harder than others. According to outspoken Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary, the UK will be among the most vulnerable countries due to its overreliance on Middle Eastern oil sources, particularly from Kuwait.
Fuel prices have now soared to almost $200 a barrel, leaving the grim specter of mass cancellations on the horizon during the busy summer travel season. Although Ryanair has hedged most of its fuel costs for the next 12 months, the airline is not immune to industry-wide fuel shortages, a scenario that would force mass cancellations or fare hikes.
Fuel Shortages Could Hit UK Airlines
As reported by The Guardian, O’Leary singled out the UK as Europe’s “most vulnerable” country amid the ongoing fuel crisis, citing the country’s heavy dependence on Kuwaiti oil. The UK relies on approximately 25% of its oil from Kuwait, which is transported by cargo ship via the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran tightly restricting access to the critical shipping lane, oil prices worldwide have jumped dramatically, leading to fears of mass airline cancellations this summer.
Many carriers have already made significant changes to their schedules, including United Airlines, which has imposed a 5% cut across its summer network. Ryanair has not implemented any shortage-related widespread network cuts yet, but said the airline would “have to start looking at cancelling some flights or taking some capacity out” if the 2026 Iran Crisis persists into the summer months. Even if production of jet fuel in the Middle East levels at an acceptable rate, the logistics of moving it out could remain the larger problem. According to O’Leary,
“Of all the European countries at the moment, the one that is most vulnerable is the UK because of the market share that the Kuwaitis have here. There could be a surplus of jet A-1 fuel in the Middle East, but you still have to ship it to Europe, and we don’t know when or how that happens.”
Mass Summer Cancellations Ahead?
O’Leary claims to have received assurances that fuel supplies will be kept stable toward the end of May, but the outlook beyond that is uncertain. Should an availability shortage hit the industry, airlines in the UK and beyond would be looking at significant cuts over the summer, when most carriers are operating their busiest quarterly schedules.
Thousands of flights have already been canceled due to concerns over oil shortages, but this is only a fraction of the impact that a prolonged jet fuel shortage would have. Ryanair continues to review its schedule on a weekly basis, while O’Leary added that any network cuts made would most likely be in response to airport-specific fuel shortages, rather than trimming suboptimal routes.
The UK government has remained cool on the prospect of fuel blackouts at airports, stating that supplies of fuel remain steady and advising travelers to book their vacations as usual. However, the European Union (EU) has been far more cautious, advising its citizens to prioritize road and rail travel.
Ticking Clock: Airlines Warn Jet Fuel Could Run Dry Within Weeks
Carriers are expected to make mass cancellations in response.
European Airlines Are Well-Hedged (For Now)
While US airlines have notably moved away from fuel hedging practices in recent years, it is still alive and well in Europe. Ryanair says it has hedged around 80% of its fuel up until March 2027 at a price of $67 per barrel, while low-cost rival easyJet has also said it is well-hedged for the coming months.
Although hedging will protect airlines financially, they will still feel the effects of a supply shortage. The uncertainty of the situation is leaving airlines with a dilemma over whether to cancel flights now or risk canceling them at a date closer to departure. Ryanair is also considering the prospect of raising fares, with O’Leary not ruling out a hike in ticket costs to cover growing fuel costs. As well as increasing base ticket prices, many airlines are raising their fuel surcharges per passenger.
