We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy. They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today’s and a moderate decline in labor force participation. However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050:

• Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025)

• A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs)

• 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939)

That is from this very good and very detailed Twitter thread, worth reading in its entirety.  Note this:

Only 5.2% of the variance is between scenarios—attributable to disagreement about AI capabilities themselves…

Here is the full paper, over 200 pages long, I will be reading through it.  The list of authors is impressive, with Ezra Karger in the lead, also including Kevin Bryan, Basil Halperin, and many more.  For some while this will stand as the best set of estimates we have.  Here are the related forecasts of Seb Krier.