A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co

In fall 2011, global stock markets tumbled amid increasing concerns over sovereign debt levels. Debt crises gripped Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. S&P even of its pristine AAA sovereign credit rating.

The S&P 500 fell 19% from its July 7 closing high of 1,353 to its Oct. 3 closing low of 1,099.

It was the kind of move you’d think would have Wall Street strategists tripping over each other as they cut their targets for the market.

But , when the S&P was at 1,154, then-BofA strategist David Bianco raised his 12-month forecast on the S&P to 1,450 from 1,400. This implied a very bullish 26% return. In his note, he also suggested the market could surge 15% from Sept. to January.

At the time, his calls were as delusional optimism. I even wrote that he was the “.” (Three days later, BofA and Bianco . He Deutsche Bank as their top equity strategist. Today, he’s CIO at DWS.)

Well, Bianco both calls.

The S&P surged 15% from September to the end of January. And it hit 1,450 on Sept. 13, 2012 — 12 months and two days after he set his 12-month target.

I was reminded of this episode this week because Barclays’ Venu Krishna his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,650 . This, despite the market pulling back amid and stemming from the conflict in Iran.

“Our baseline is that concerns over AI disruption, private credit, and geopolitics reflect real and material risks, but ones that will nonetheless fall short of derailing the current growth cycle at this point in time,” he .

A key driver of his updated call is his expectation for S&P 500 earnings to grow to $321 per share this year, up from his .

, it should be earnings. They’re the of stock prices. And according to , earnings estimates have been drifting higher.

As Schwab’s Kevin Gordon , we have to distinguish between front-page risk and bottom-line risk. Stories on the front page may spark market volatility. But those stories matter to the stock market only to the degree they affect , or earnings.

And so far, the earnings narrative continues to be bullish.

It’s not breaking news that the stock market behaves unpredictably and sometimes counterintuitively.

, Wall Street strategists had year-end S&P 500 targets .

As the Trump administration rolled out its aggressive trade policy, , and . Almost all strategists had .

But to many people’s surprise, the S&P eventually recovered losses and closed the year at 6,845, an impressive 16% gain. That closing price was actually higher than most strategists’ at the beginning of the year.

Despite the policy headwinds, , helping prices climb to new record highs.

To be clear, this is not me suggesting you should lean on a Wall Street strategist’s one-year target for the stock market. .

I’m also not suggesting that markets are sure to recover and rise above everyone’s targets. , and 2026 .

All I’m saying is that good stock market analysis sometimes yields contrarian findings, even when and recent price performance point in the opposite direction.

The stock market will do unexpected things, especially over short periods like one year. So don’t be too surprised if we ultimately get better-than-expected results despite what appears to be worsening market conditions.

A version of this post first appeared on TKer.co