Ahead of Nike’s Q3 Report, Wall Street Is Pondering 4 Big Concerns


As Nike Inc. continues to reset its business, several hiccups could be on the horizon.

The company reports third quarter earnings results next Tuesday. And investors are pondering four potential concerns: a slowdown in Europe, an unhealthy wholesale business in the U.S., continued sluggishness in China and the fate of Converse, which could be on the chopping block.

Taken together, those challenges suggest that Wall Street could have a “bearish” outlook for the brand.

Guggenheim Securities’ Simeon Siege pointed to “nascent fears around Europe” as a potential negative for investors. He noted that JD Europe’s fourth quarter-to-date sales have slowed, but said that Nike’s Run success in North America could become a tailwind for continued shelf space overseas.

In Nike’s second quarter report on Dec. 18, executive vice president and CFO Matthew Friend noted the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) saw “promotional activity [that] has been heavier than expected.”

While he cited growth in Central and Eastern Europe, those increases were offset by slight declines in Western Europe. And BNP Paribas equity research senior analyst Laurent Vasilescu noted that a return to dressier footwear was also contributing to the slowdown in lifestyle sneaker momentum.

Siegel noted that discussions with investors indicate concern that stronger-than-expected first half North American revenue growth is “unhealthy,” possibly due to a “pull-forward of demand and a ‘channel stuff’ based on a mismatch in third-party sell-in versus sell-through data.”

Growth in wholesale could be “masking ongoing — and decelerating — direct-to-consumer (DTC) declines.” These concerns, he noted, appear to be supported by first half North American gross margins that are down by more than 300 basis points.

An ongoing challenge for Nike is its China business. Telsey Advisory Group’s Christina Fernández is projecting a 16 percent decline in revenue on a constant currency basis, down 2 percent for EMEA and up 4 percent for North America. She described China as Nike’s “weakest region,” noting that the decline is at a similar 16 percent rate in constant currency as the last quarter.

“U.S. retailers’ comments on the performance of Nike’s new running products remain upbeat, although other brands continue to gain share in lifestyle and competition from Adidas, New Balance, On and Hoka remains robust,” Fernández said.

UBS analyst Jay Sole said his channel checks suggest that Nike had “lackluster global sales momentum through March. [to date]”

He cited Nike’s third quarter U.S. DTC sales growth rate as weak, declining in the mid-single-digits year-over-year. Sole also said DTC sales in Europe were “soft” and that the “underlying trends in the EU wholesale channel continue to be under pressure and underperforming peers.” He noted that Nike’s stock price has fallen 19 percent over the last three months.

“These datapoints mirror our conversations with investors indicating sentiment has weakened recently and leans bearish,” Sole said. “We are hearing concerns [that] Nike’s turnaround in China and for the Converse brand are taking longer than previously thought. Plus, some investors are cautious about Nike’s ability to sustain momentum in running.”



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