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Key events
WTO fertiliser warning over strait of Hormuz closure: ‘Harvests shrink and prices rise’
Disruptions to international fertiliser supplies caused by the closing of the strait of Hormuz will cause food scarcity and high prices, the World Trade Organisation’s deputy director general, Jean-Marie Paugam, told Agence France-Press.
A third of the world’s fertilisers normally transit the strait, which has been virtually closed by Iran since the start of the war.
Paugam said there would be an impact on both quantity and prices. “The effect compounds the following year: harvests shrink and prices rise,” he said.
The gulf has ample supplies of natural gas, a key ingredient in artificial fertilisers, but production has been severely impeded by the war, with several facilities forced to shut down.
Major food exporters like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on exports of urea, a nitrogen-based fertiliser. There is currently no fertiliser shortage, Paugum said, but as the conflict drags on “we will feel a direct impact on supplies to major producer countries just as planting season begins for the crops that will be harvested next year”.
Countries which import most of their food would be in a very bad position, according to Paugum, including parts of west and north Africa. The effect would be amplified if countries begin stockpiling, as occurred during the Covid pandemic.
Opening summary
Welcome to our ongoing coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran and its wider repercussions in the Middle East and globally.
More American troops are prepared to head to the Middle East. At least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division will be sent in the coming days, three people with knowledge of the plans told the Associated Press. The 82nd airborne is an elite infantry division that can typically be deployed on short notice and specialises in forcible entry parachute assaults. Donald Trump has reportedly approved the deployment.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell sharply in early Wednesday trading after Trump sent a peace plan to Iran and voiced optimism about ending nearly a month of war.
After rising in Europe and the US on Tuesday, Brent crude was down 6% at $98.30, and the contract, West Texas Intermediate, was down 5% at $87.72.
Early on Wednesday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, according to Iranian state media.
In Lebanon, state media reported Israeli strikes had killed at least six people in a town and a Palestinian refugee camp in the southern Sidon area, and three more in another town. In addition, Israel, which occupied southern Lebanon for nearly two decades until 2000, has said its military would take control of the border area up to the Litani river, around 30km (20 miles) from the frontier.
The Israeli campaign has killed at least 1,072 people in Lebanon, with more than one million people displaced, according to Lebanese authorities.
Here are the key developments:
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The US has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, sources told Reuters, with the New York Times saying the plan was delivered by way of Pakistan. It is unclear if Israel is on board with the proposal, nor if Iran is likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations.
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Donald Trump claimed negotiations to end the Iran war are happening “right now” and that Tehran had agreed to “never” have a nuclear weapon, declaring that “we’ve won this war” to reporters in the Oval Office. He further claimed Tehran gave him a “gift” which was “oil and gas-related” which involved the strait of Hormuz, without giving further details.
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This comes a day after Iranian officials denied any contact with the US had taken place and called claims of such talks “fake news” designed to “manipulate” oil markets.
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News that Trump had also approved the deployment of more than 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East further undermined the US president’s repeated claims of successful peace talks. The extra troops have not yet left the US but will be sent overseas in the coming days, sources told AP. Iran has previously threatened to mine the gulf surrounding the island if the US appeared to be landing troops.
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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have fired missiles at Israel and US forces in bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, state media reported. Kuwaiti officials reported a fire at the airport after a drone hit a fuel tank.
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Approximately 290 US troops have been wounded so far, CNN reports, with 13 soldiers killed in action. Over 1,500 Iranians have been killed, Iran’s state broadcaster said on 21 March.
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Lebanon faces an “existential crisis” after Israel announced plans to seize and occupy large swathes of the country’s south to create a so-called “security zone”, officials say. Many Lebanese fear that IDF plans to create a “buffer” south of the Litani River — 20 miles from the current Israel-Lebanon border — will become a long-term occupation.
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A projectile has hit the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, who were informed of the strike by Iran. There was no damage to the facility or staff and conditions at the plant remain normal, the IAEA said on X.
