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The Carolina Hurricanes and the Montreal Canadiens might be a playoff preview. If the Canadiens finish fourth in the Atlantic Division, they could cross over to the Metropolitan Division side of the playoffs.
It’s not a bad matchup for the Canadiens. They are more likely to have difficulty with the more physical teams like Tampa Bay or Buffalo.
First things first: in their regular season meeting at the Bell Centre Tuesday night, the Canadiens spotted the Hurricanes with the first two, then roared back for the next five in a 5-2 win.
Wilde Horses
Every season there are about five lines that hit the 100-goal plateau in the NHL. To show what a slog it’s been for the Canadiens, they haven’t had a 100-goal line since 1993 with Vincent Damphoussse, Kirk Muller, and Brian Bellows.
The top line in the league this season for goals is Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen, and Martin Necas. They have 96 goals in 69 games. Over a full season that is 114 goals at their present pace. They’re almost unstoppable.
Enter Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Cole Caufield as all three continue to grow their games and develop chemistry with each other.
Down 2-0 and not looking that sharp, the Canadiens top line ignited yet another comeback. After Oliver Kapanen scored his 21st of the season, the line went to work. Caufield won a forecheck to start the offence that also ended with Caufield. He scored on a rebound for his 44th goal of the season. He’s only two off the league lead.
Two shifts later, they scored again. Noah Dobson took a point shot that was deflected by Caufield and hit Slafkovsky’s knee on the way in. That’s how to score in the NHL. Not the good fortune of hitting a knee, but two players in front of the net creating havoc.
For the top line with their two goals, that is 21 goals in 10 games since being brought back together. That’s more than two goals per game and blows away the top line in the league. Now naturally they can’t keep up that pace to get 160 goals, but they can be considered one of the best lines in the league even if their pace fell off by a third.
Individually, Caufield has 44 goals, Slafkovsky has 28 goals, Suzuki has 24 goals. That’s 96 goals. That’s the same total as MacKinnon’s line in Denver. That’s how good they’ve been this season. Hopefully, they get to play an entire season together, so the 1993 statistic can be archived like Caufield just archived Damphousse’s 1994 40-goal mark.
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Exciting times in Montreal — it’s been a long wait. Now the wait is over, and considering that the eldest of the three is Suzuki at 26, it’s going to be a long time before fans have to wait again.
None of the greatness would have been appreciated fully, if not for the stellar net minding of Jakub Dobes. The Hurricanes dominated the first, carrying much of the play on the night. With the game on the line, and with four minutes left, Logan Stankoven had a breakaway that Dobes stopped.
It was his 35th save in 37 shots. He finished with a 42 save performance on 44 shots. His Goals Saved Above Expected was 2.41.
Other players to excel were Kaiden Guhle, Ivan Demidov, Zachary Bolduc, and Alexandre Texier. Guhle looks so right with easier matchups and Alexandre Carrier as his partner. He is brimming with confidence. Demidov scored a tremendous breakaway goal with a deke no one is stopping. Carrier and Bolduc simply played solid and smart.
Wilde Goats
One of the issues on the Canadiens that seems to have flown completely under the radar is that the first pair defenders struggle together. Independently, Noah Dobson and Mike Matheson with other partners have strong analytics. When they are with Lane Hutson, each of their Expected Goals share is higher than 62 percent.
However, when Dobson and Matheson are together and trying to take on the best players in the league, they struggle. Matheson often hits 28 minutes, and Dobson hits 25 minutes regularly. A coach who relies on any player for that much hockey in a game needs them to hold their own or dominate. They have a 47 per cent Expected Goals share when they play together this season.
The eye test was particularly supportive of the statistic in this contest. They could not handle the forecheck of the Hurricanes. They kept trying to exit by passing back the puck or passing between the two, only to get forechecked to death yet again.
In the first period, the pairing was absolutely caved in by Carolina. When the pairing was on, the Hurricanes had 10 shots for, zero against. An Expected Goals share of zero for your top duo is troubling.
The truth is this season that the Canadiens’ best has been when Lane Hutson plays on his correct side with Dobson. They complement each other well and can handle the other team’s top players. Offensively, Hutson creates the space, then feeds to the best blue line shot on the team. That makes sense as well.
The third pairing has been outstanding since united with Kaiden Guhle finding a real comfort zone with Alexandre Carrier. They’re both in their proper seat in terms of matchups and supporting each other’s strengths.
That leaves the second pairing as the mystery. Mike Matheson could use easier matchups and less ice time, but he doesn’t have a partner yet in the ultimate best look for the blue line going forward. Perhaps Matheson would make a good partner for David Reinbacher.
That would be the best roster construction according to the eyes and the analytics.
Wilde Cards
The seasons are winding down for the best prospects of the Canadiens. Two are approaching an exciting time as Michael Hage and Bryce Pickford are set for their playoffs.
Hage plays for the number one team in all of college hockey and they are hot at the right time. The Michigan Wolverines stormed their way to the Big 10 title with three easy games. They now head to the regionals, getting a favourable draw in Albany, N.Y.
The semifinal is Friday at 5:30 with the Wolverines as the number one seed drawing the 16 seed Bentley. Bentley won the Atlantic Hockey America Conference 3-2 over Sacred Heart. That’s worth an automatic bid as conference winner, but it is not a strong conference. Bentley was actually ranked 23rd in the nation.
A loss in game one would be an absolute shocker for Michigan. Should they win, they face the winner of Minnesota-Duluth and Penn State. The Sunday final against the Nittany Lions is the attractive matchup, as it would have Hage against Gavin McKenna who is the consensus pick to go number one in the NHL draft.
The winner of the Albany Regional goes to the Frozen Four in Las Vegas in mid-April.
Pickford wrapped up his regular season counting 45 goals as a defenceman, giving him the highest goals-per-game average for a rearguard in the history of the Western Hockey League. Simply a remarkable levelling up for Pickford, who went from an afterthought in the draft to a top-5o prospect in hockey.
Pickford’s Medicine Hat Tigers won the Central Division with ease and are one of the top teams in the country ranked fifth. Their first-round matchup is with the Regina Pats. It should be an easy best-of-seven for the Tigers.
In both instances, Pickford and Hage will begin their association with the Canadiens if they wrap up their seasons quickly. Pickford would join the Laval Rocket, and Hage is likely to join Montreal. If they both go on deep playoff runs, though, they may not arrive to Quebec in time.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you Call of the Wilde on globalnews.ca after each Canadiens game.
