Alimentation Couche-Tard stock falls as analysts scatter price targets


Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO) shares have slipped about seven per cent since the fuel and convenience retail giant reported financial results last week. With over 13,000 gas stations scattered across six continents, the Canadian “night owl” is exposed to commodity volatility linked to the war in Iran on many fronts.

“Times of volatility historically have almost always been positive,” CEO Alex Miller told investors on the company’s earnings call on March 18.

“As price goes up … average unit purchase comes down. It doesn’t necessarily mean demand destruction, and actually drives additional trips to our sites.”

Couche-Tard’s Toronto-listed stock was trading near all-time highs above $85 per share, prior to the joint U.S.-Israel attack killing Iran’s leader. The stock closed at $76.17 on Friday.

Crude oil prices have soared since then, as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy markets, remains forced to a standstill.

According to pump price data from Kalibrate, Canada’s gas price average has risen over 25 per cent since the day prior to the Feb. 28 military operation dubbed “Epic Fury” by American forces.

Miller says while higher prices put “additional stress on consumers that are already stretched and have [only] so much money to spend,” he remains “cautiously optimistic” about trends so far in the current quarter.

“Obviously, this is a very strong performance quarter in fuel, but in nicotine and thirst, you know, just solidly positive,” he said on Wednesday. “I am encouraged by the progress that we’re seeing, and post February 28, we have not seen a change in those trends.”

Earlier this month, credit rating agency DBRS Morningstar said it expects fuel retailers like Couche-Tard will have no problem passing higher oil prices on to consumers at the gas pumps.

Chief financial officer Filipe Da Silva said the three months ended Feb. 1 was the company’s best quarterly performance in over two years. Same-store merchandise sales increased by 2.8 per cent in the U.S., by 0.3 per cent in Canada, and by 0.4 per cent in Europe and other regions. Canadian same-store road transportation fuel volumes rose 4.2 per cent on a yearly basis, outpacing Europe and the United States.

“That performance is especially notable against the softer economic backdrop,” Miller said.

“Margins are fine so far this quarter,” he added. “I would say they’re in line with what we’ve delivered year-to-date thus far.”

CIBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Petrie lowered his price target on the company’s stock on Wednesday.

“The U.S.-Israel-Iran war has led to significant volatility in energy markets and higher fuel prices. ATD is positioned to leverage its scale and benefit from volatility in trading, but it also creates uncertainty for consumers, and higher fuel prices are a net negative on sentiment and spending,” he wrote in a note to clients.

“Our price target moves to $89 (was $92) on moderated margins.”

Meanwhile, Irene Nattel at RBC Capital Markets raised her price target from $100 per share to $106.

“Historically, crude market volatility has tended to result in net positive outcomes for ATD,” she wrote. “We remain constructive on the name based on improving results, track record of disciplined capital allocation/ability to manage through challenging times.”

BMO Capital Markets analyst Étienne Ricard held his $84 per share price target following Wednesday financial results.

“While volumes per transaction may decline, higher fuel prices could also signal more trips,” he wrote in a research note. “That said, we see Europe as more exposed near term, as higher fuel and electricity costs could pressure disposable income and consumer spending.”

Ricard maintains a “market perform” rating on Couche-Tard stock. Petri and Nattel have “outperform” ratings.

Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist.





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