Those statements suggested the Space Force was likely to transfer the GPS slated to fly on the next Vulcan rocket to a different launch vehicle. That’s exactly what happened. On Friday, Space Systems Command confirmed that GPS III SV10 will now launch on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket in late April. Read our earlier story on why the Space Force is so eager to launch GPS satellites.

Each GPS III satellite weighs more than four tons at launch. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets and ULA’s Vulcan are the only launchers certified by the Space Force to launch these types of missions. With an inventory of reusable boosters flying several times per week, SpaceX can fit new missions in on relatively short notice.

“With this change, we are answering the call for rapid delivery of advanced GPS capability while the Vulcan anomaly investigation continues,” said Col. Ryan Hiserote, director of the National Security Space Launch program. “We are once again demonstrating our team’s flexibility and are fully committed to leverage all options available for responsive and reliable launch for the nation.”

Fall from grace

This is not a good look for United Launch Alliance, once the US military’s sole launch provider. SpaceX began launching US national security missions in 2018 after winning the right to compete for military launch contracts with its Falcon 9 rocket. The company entered the military launch market after filing a lawsuit against the Air Force in 2014 protesting the Pentagon’s decision to award ULA a multibillion-dollar sole-source contract.

The military opened a series of launch contracts to the competition, and in 2020, it selected ULA for 60 percent and SpaceX for 40 percent of its missions up for awards through the end of 2023. Last year, Space Systems Command announced the winners of a follow-on competition covering launches through the end of the decade. This time, SpaceX won the majority of the contracts, with ULA relegated to second position. The Space Force added Blue Origin as a third launch provider.

The Pentagon has maintained a policy of assured access to space since the 1990s, when the military lost several expensive, high-priority payloads in launch failures. ULA was the only provider for these launches for more than a decade, with Atlas V and Delta IV rockets providing overlap in capability to deliver most, but not all, national security payloads to orbit. The Delta IV is now out of service, and the Atlas V is nearing retirement.

Today, SpaceX alone comes closest to providing assured access to space, despite ULA’s backlog of more than $8 billion in military launch contracts.