Playing in the First Four doesn’t usually bode well for March Madness success. There have been a handful of notable exceptions, however, since the field expanded to 68 in 2011. Two teams, VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021, went from the First Four to the Final Four. La Salle (2013), Tennessee (2014) and Syracuse (2018) are the other teams that have advanced from the First Four to the Sweet 16. The 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket features Texas and Howard winners from the First Four on Tuesday.

Could either of those teams disrupt 2026 NCAA bracket picks, and which 2026 March Madness upsets and NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams should be on your radar? Before making any 2026 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past seven tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run two years ago and nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 last year. It also correctly predicted all four Final Four teams in 2025.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

Now, with the 2026 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Three 2026 March Madness Cinderella teams to watch out for

One potential 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket buster is the Akron Zips. The 12th-seeded Zips, who have very strong guard play, certainly have the pieces to make some noise in the March Madness bracket. Their bracket draw also helps their case. They get No. 5 Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have been trending down since losing star JT Toppin (knee) for the season. They went just 3-4 in the seven games since that injury, and they enter the NCAA Tournament 2026 off a non-competitive 75-53 loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. Looking a bit ahead, Akron could draw No. 4 Alabama, a team dealing with legal uncertainty surrounding second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, in the second round, opening a clear path to the second weekend for the Zips. 

Another potential double-digit darling for 2026 March Madness is No. 13 Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors last made the tournament in 2016, and they knocked off No. 4 California that season. This year’s veteran-driven squad got them back in the first time in a decade, and they’ll face a tough Arkansas squad in the first round. John Calipari, however, hasn’t been a safe choice in March in recent years. He was knocked out in the first round in two of his final three years at Kentucky before bouncing back with a Sweet 16 run in his first year at Arkansas last year. The Razorbacks could be on upset alert if they overlook this dangerous double-digit seed. 

Another Cinderella team to watch for is the 13-seed California Baptist Lancers. The Lancers are somewhat under the radar because they just joined Division I in 2018, and this is their first NCAA Tournament appearance. Senior guard Dominique Daniels Jr. however, is one of the best players in the nation whom few people know. The 5-foot-10 senior averages 23.2 points per game, ranking fifth in the nation, and he’s heating up even more in March, averaging 32 points per game in his last three. The Lancers draw 4-seed Kansas in the first round, a team that lost five of its past nine games entering March Madness. Check out more of the model’s 2026 Cinderella picks and full 2026 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2026 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which double-digit seeds you can back with confidence, all from the model that called all four Final Four teams in 2025.