March Madness bracket: Picking the First Four games for Wednesday night, including 31-1 Miami (Ohio)

Miami (Ohio) became one of the most unexpected big stories of a college basketball season in recent memory.

Miami wasn’t even expected to win the MAC. Akron got 11 of 13 first-place votes in the preseason poll, though Miami got the other two. Even if Miami won the MAC, it wouldn’t have been a big deal on the college basketball landscape. But a 31-0 start from anyone will get attention.

Miami didn’t lose in the regular season, only losing to UMass in the MAC tournament after a 31-0 start to the season. The RedHawks’ viability for an at-large bid was debated often, but they got in the tournament. They did get a date in Dayton for the First Four, however. Now their fun story gets a national stage in a standalone game on Wednesday night.

Here are the picks for the First Four games on Wednesday, with odds from BetMGM:

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks guard Peter Suder was a big part of a team that won its first 31 games to start the season. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Lehigh (-3.5) over Prairie View A&M

These are the two worst teams in the NCAA tournament and by a wide margin according to KenPom.com. Lehigh ranks 284th of 365 Division I teams and Prairie View A&M is 288th. The third-worst team in this year’s tournament is LIU, all the way up at 216th. And just think, the winner between Lehigh and Prairie View A&M gets to face Florida on Friday.

But two teams that rank near the bottom of the sport do each have a good shot at a tournament win, and both are coming in on hot streaks. Lehigh, which started 4-11 this season, won the Patriot League tournament with a finishing kick of eight wins in nine games. Prairie View A&M won nine of its last 10 games, including the SWAC tournament.

You have to squint to find a true strength for either team but here it is: Lehigh ranked 39th in the sport in 3-point shooting percentage. That’s enough to pick the Mountain Hawks.

SMU (-6.5) over Miami (Ohio)

It’s not fun to pile on Miami. The RedHawks had a great season and didn’t deserve the scorn they got from some. The negativity about anyone outside of the power conferences getting positive publicity was jarring at times. We’ve become averse to fun stories in the NCAA tournament, it seems.

So there’s no joy here in picking against Miami in their tournament opener. But SMU is a tough opponent. The Mustangs slumped a bit late, but that was without B.J. Edwards, who does everything including 12.7 points per game and could return from injury for this game. Even if Edwards isn’t back, it’s hard to ignore the metrics that separate SMU and Miami, most notably a 51-spot gap at KenPom.com (SMU is 42nd, Miami is 93rd).

Miami has been a great story this season and fans should be rooting for the RedHawks. But SMU is the better team, and it is the pick.

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