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A new report from the Canada Energy Regulator is projecting significant growth in electrical generation between now and 2050, in part due to new artificial intelligence data centres’ thirst for power.
The report by the federal agency offers four supply and demand scenarios for Canada’s oil, gas and electricity markets: current measures, higher, lower and net-zero.
In all cases, the report says electricity will play an increasingly important source of energy, with power generation growing by 30 per cent, at the low end, to more than double today’s production levels by the year 2050.
“To meet rising power demand in all the scenarios, we see surging wind power alongside a diverse mix of other less variable supply sources,” CER chief economist Darren Christie told reporters Tuesday.
In all scenarios, wind energy makes up the bulk of the power capacity additions, with about 50 to 150 more gigawatts feeding into the grid by 2050, compared to 2023 levels.
The report from the Canada Energy Regulator predicts more than 96 per cent of new electricity generation by the year 2050 will come from ‘non or low emitting sources,’ with wind energy expected to be ‘by far’ the largest additional source of renewable energy.
Courtesy: Canada Energy Regulator
While the increased demand for energy will be, in part, driven by economic growth, the report said that forecasting the future demand from data centres – enormous structures that house the vast computing firepower needed for artificial intelligence and other tech applications – poses a challenge because they can be quite large and unpredictable, depending on development in the emerging industry.
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In the lower scenario, data centres are predicted to increase electricity demand by as little as 0.5 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, while under the higher scenario they are predicted to add up to 12 GW of electricity demand to the country’s power grid by 2050.
The report also forecasts that more than 96 per cent of new generation will come from “non or low emitting sources,” with wind energy expected to be “by far” the largest additional source of renewable energy.
They predictions don’t include changes to Ottawa’s electric vehicle program in February, including the scrapping of a mandate to have all new cars be electric by 2035.
The war embroiling much of the Middle East in recent weeks was also not explicitly factored into the CER’s projections.
The conflict has cut off shipments of crude from the Persian Gulf through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, driving global prices up roughly 45 per cent from their pre-war levels.
While the report forecasts Canada’s crude oil production to grow in the near-term, output is forecast to peak at different points in time and is tied to global oil prices.
Canada’s oil production was 5.5 million barrels a day in 2024.
Under the status quo scenario, production would reach 6.1 million barrels per day around 2040 and level off to 5.9 million barrels per day by 2050.
In a high scenario buoyed by strong prices, production would peak at 6.7 million barrels a day in 2044, while in the lower case, production would gradually decline to 5.2 million barrels a day by the year 2050.
Oilsands crude is expected to dominate in each circumstance, with production from conventional and offshore resources being the first to drop off.
WUDONG, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, fills up at an LNG Canada facility, in an aerial view, in Kitimat, B.C., on Thursday, November 13, 2025.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns
Natural gas production is predicted to increase to between 21 and 32 billion cubic feet per day by 2050, compared to the 19 billion cubic feet per day produced in Canada in 2025.
However, much of the growth is being driven by projects that chill the natural gas into a liquid (LNG) so it can be shipped in specialized tanker overseas.
By 2050, the CER says about a quarter of total Canadian gas production will be tied to liquefied natural gas exports.
Greenhouse gas emissions fall in all of the CER’s scenarios, but plateau around 2035 under current policies.
“Reaching net zero by 2050 would require an economywide transformation towards low carbon technologies, driven by additional climate action,” the regulator added.
With files from Global News.
© 2026 The Canadian Press
