The context for the Federal Reserve’s two-day March policy meeting has changed significantly in the past two weeks, as the war in Iran shows little sign of moderating and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel.

Although the central bank is expected to stay the course and keep interest rates unchanged in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, uncertainty around the duration of the conflict has raised questions about the path of policy for the rest of the year.

As my colleague Jennifer Schonberger notes, the oil shock from the Iran war could deepen divisions within the central bank on the inflation outlook.

She writes that a few weeks ago, the big debate inside the Fed was how far rates are from neutral — a level on the Fed’s benchmark policy rate designed to neither boost nor slow economic growth. Now the picture is changing and will be defined largely by how long the war in Iran lasts and how long high oil prices linger.

Officials will release the quarterly “dot plot” — a graph that charts how many interest rate cuts each Fed member sees for this year and next. But economists say they are giving less weight to the projections, given the uncertainty around the duration and impact of the war.

Read more about what to expect at this March’s Fed meeting here.