The UMBC Retrievers battle the Howard Bison in a 2026 First Four matchup on Tuesday night. The winner will be the 16th seed and will face the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines on Thursday in the first round. UMBC won the American East title over the University of Vermont by a score of 74-59, while Howard won the MEAC tournament 70-63 over the North Carolina Central Eagles. The Retrievers (24 – 8), who finished in first place in the American East, have won twelve straight games. The Bison (23-10), who finished in first place in the MEAC, have won eight straight games. 

Tipoff from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Howards has the all-time series lead, 5-2. The Retrievers and Bison met last season, with the Retrievers winning 95-77. UMBC is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest UMBC vs Howard odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Howard vs. UMBC picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the tournament on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated UMBC vs. Howard 10,000 times and just revealed its First Four picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Howard vs. UMBC:

Top UMBC vs. Howard predictions

After 10,000 simulations of UMBC vs. Howard, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (140.5 points). The Over hit in the last meeting between the teams. UMBC is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games and 10-0 straight up in its last 10 games. 

The model projects the Retrievers to have four players score 10.3 points or more, including Jah’Likai King, who is projected to score 14.3 points. The Bison are projected to have four players score 10.3 points or more, led by Bryce Harris, who is projected to score 19.3 points. The model is projecting 151 combined points as the Over clears in over 80% of simulations. 

How to make UMBC vs. Howard picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins UMBC vs. Howard, and which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.