Nunavut MP Lori Idlout’s defection from the NDP to the Liberal caucus has almost guaranteed a majority for Prime Minister Mark Carney, provided the Liberals win two of the three upcoming byelections. But governing with a slim majority would pose a significant challenge for the prime minister, as the loss of even one or two MPs could bring the government back into minority territory, potentially leading to an early election.

“It still would be nice for the Liberals to win it, but if they don’t, there’s not as much at stake,” said Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research. “Whether you have a one-seat majority or a 15-seat majority, you still get the [House] committee chairs, and that’s really the material issue here.”

Idlout is the fourth opposition MP to leave their party and join the Liberals. Before her, three Conservatives—Chris d’Entremont (Acadie-Annapolis, N.S.), Michael Ma (Markham-Unionville, Ont.) and Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend, Alta.)—crossed the floor to join the Liberal ranks.

There are rumours that more MPs from the Conservatives could join the governing party.

“I think very much so,” Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon (Gatineau, Que.) told reporters on March 12 when asked if the government is still wooing more opposition MPs.

“I think that Canadians who live in Conservative ridings look at their MPs and wish they would spend more time proposing solutions, participating in this great project on which we’ve embarked to build Canada more strong and to continue to diversity our supply chains, to continue to develop markets abroad and to continue to push our economy,” he said.

With Idlout’s addition to the Liberal column last week, the government caucus now has 170 MPs, two short of a majority. The Conservatives have 141 MPs, the Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP six, and the Greens one.

Carney (Nepean, Ont.) has called byelections for April 13 in three ridings to fill vacant seats: University-Rosedale, Ont.; Scarborough Southwest, Ont.; and Terrebonne, Que.

The first two Toronto-area ridings are considered safe Liberal seats, but the Terrebonne riding is where the real contest is expected between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. The Liberals won this riding in last year’s general election by only one vote. Later, it turned out that a voter had their mail-in ballot—which was marked for the Bloc—returned due to an Elections Canada error. Elections Canada acknowledged the error, but declined to overturn the result, saying it had already been finalized.

The Bloc candidate, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné—who was the riding’s incumbent MP—took the case to the courts, and after a months-long legal battle, the Supreme Court annulled the election result and the byelection was called.

Sinclair-Desgagné is running again as is Liberal Tatiana Auguste, who had initially been declared the winner after the general election.

It remains to be seen whether the Liberals can win this riding again. Historically, it has been a safe seat for the Bloc Québécois. Just days before the byelection next month, the Liberals will also hold their biannual policy convention, with thousands of party members gathering in Montreal. The April 9-11 convention could boost Auguste’s profile and potentially help her win the riding.

Even if the Liberals were to win all three byelections, they would hold just one seat more than the required threshold for a majority government. This means that the resignation of even one or two MPs could push the Liberals back into minority status. In such tricky circumstances, backbench MPs often exert significant pressure on the leadership to get their demands met, knowing full well that every vote is critical to the government’s survival.

The Liberals could soon lose at least one MP. Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Beaches-East York, Ont.) has already announced his intention to run for the Ontario Liberal leadership, and to seek the party’s nomination in the provincial riding of Scarborough Southwest, which became vacant when then-NDP MPP Doly Begum decided to run federally for the Liberals.

While Beaches–East York is generally deemed a safe Liberal seat, it has flipped to the NDP in the past, including in the 2011 and 1988 elections. If a high-profile NDP candidate such as Avi Lewis were to enter the race, the Liberals could face a serious challenge in the Toronto riding.

Caucus still matters; whips are powerful people in slim majorities

In a minority government, it becomes a serious challenge for a governing party to pass legislation. In the House committees, opposition MPs outnumber government members, allowing them to launch politically driven studies and investigations aimed at undermining the incumbent government. In contrast, a majority government allows the governing party to pass legislation in the House with much greater ease.

Regardless of a minority or majority government, opposition parties control four committees: Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics; the Government Operations and Estimates Committee; the Public Accounts Committee; and the Status of Women Committee. In other committees, governing party MPs outnumber the opposition MPs.

Meanwhile, Lyle said that as with a minority government, managing caucus with a slim majority would still be challenging. He pointed out that a significant portion of the current Liberal caucus was first elected under then-prime minister Justin Trudeau on a progressive agenda, while Carney is more of a business or “blue” Liberal which could make caucus management even more difficult.

“Caucus is very powerful, whether it’s a slight minority or a slight majority,” said Lyle.

“Caucus still matters a lot. You just can’t take it for granted when the vote is this close. So, managing the Liberal caucus is going to be a big deal over the next couple of years.”

As for the Terrebonne byelection, Lyle predicts that it will be a nail-biter, and the outcome will depend on the quality of the two candidates and the kind of campaigns they run.

He said one reason the Liberals won this riding in the last election and made gains in other regions of the province was that many Quebecers saw Carney, a former central banker and a high-profile business executive, best placed to deal with United States President Donald Trump, and did not want Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta.) to become prime minister. That factor is not in play anymore, Lyle said, because the outcome of this byelection will not change who the prime minister is, which will make it even harder for the Liberals to win this riding.

Former government House leader Don Boudria said that, like in a minority government, the governing party would need to remain vigilant during House votes if the Liberals end up in majority territory after the April byelections. The role of the chief government whip would be crucial, he said, ensuring that all MPs—including cabinet ministers—are present for key confidence votes, and allowing caucus members to travel outside the country only for important government business.

“No one can make mistakes [on confidence votes] and the whip [will have] to tell prominent cabinet ministers, ‘Sorry, but you can’t go to the conference of whatever it is in Hawaii, you’re staying here’,” said Boudria, metaphorically explaining how all MPs and cabinet ministers will have to stay in the country for confidence votes unless it’s important government business.

“’Oh yeah, but that’s super important,’ ‘I’ll ask the prime minister,’ [ministers will argue]. ‘I don’t care if you ask the Pope,’ [the whip will say], ‘I need you here because I run the votes, and I can’t win the vote without you and that’s it.’ And the whip becomes a very powerful person in a situation like that,” said Boudria.

Joe Jordan, former parliamentary secretary to then-Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien, said that if the Liberals were to achieve majority status after the April 13 byelections, the likelihood of an early federal election would decrease. But, he said, much would depend on how smoothly the government functions in the House and in committees, given its slim majority.

“The House leader will do the best he can,” said Jordan. “And if it’s working, it’s working. If it’s not, then the election meter goes up again.”

arana@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

 

Abbas Rana is the assistant deputy editor at The Hill Times. He reports on parliamentary caucuses, nomination contests, party leadership campaigns, Prime Minister’s Office, and cabinet. Rana loves to chat with sources on the record or on a not-for-attribution basis, especially when they have verifiable story tips that could be followed as news stories. Born and raised in Pakistan, Rana speaks Punjabi, Urdu, and Hindi. See all stories BY ABBAS RANA