A new poll shows the Liberals opening up a double-digit lead over the Conservatives and making major gains in the usually Grit-averse Prairies.

It’s the latest public opinion survey to show a competitive race in Alberta and also suggests a tightening in neighbouring Saskatchewan.

The Spark Insights poll, released on Monday, has the Mark Carney-led Liberals the top choice of 46 per cent of respondents, with the Conservatives sitting a distant second at 31 per cent.

The NDP is far back in third at 10 per cent, while the Greens are at five and the other party option — which includes the Bloc Quebecois and People’s Party — sits at eight.

Compared to the 2025 election, the Liberals are up by around two points, whereas the Conservatives are down by 10 and the NDP and Greens are up around four each.

Bruce Anderson is a partner and co-founder of Spark and helped out in an informal capacity on Mark Carney’s Liberal leadership campaign in 2025.

The online poll is based on interviews from March 2-6 with 3,055 respondents in Canada, which are weighed based on regional, gender, age and education levels of the population as a whole.

It includes an Ontario oversample of 1,000 respondents, and the margin of effort for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.77 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

Spark interviewed 368 respondents in Alberta, showing the Conservatives holding a narrow three-point lead over the Liberals (41 to 38 per cent). In the election, the Conservatives were ahead by a 64 to 28 per cent margin and won 34 of the province’s 37 seats. The Liberals won two seats — one each in Edmonton and Calgary — and the NDP took the remaining riding.

Carney has made overtures to Alberta since becoming the PM, including signing a deal with the province last fall that could pave the way for a future West Coast oil pipeline.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has represented a rural Alberta riding since 2025. He ran in the riding after losing his Ottawa-area seat in last spring’s general election.

The numbers in the Spark poll look even rosier for the Liberals outside of Alberta, where they lead in every other province.

Out east, the Liberals are in front of the Tories 46 to 33 per cent, with the NDP back in third at 8 per cent. Thirteen per cent opted for a different party, which would capture support for the Greens and People’s Party.

In Quebec, the Liberals are 27 ahead of the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives, who are both tied at 20 per cent. Moving west, the Liberals holding a smaller 12-point lead over the Tories in Ontario (47 to 35 per cent), with the NDP a distant third at 10 per cent.

The Liberals have a one-point lead in Manitoba (37 per cent to 36 for the Conservatives), with the NDP at a more respectable 18 per cent.

Shockingly, the Liberals are holding a narrow lead in Saskatchewan over the Conservatives (40 to 39 per cent), though the pollster only conducted 104 interviews in the province. The Conservatives won by even a bigger margin in Saskatchewan in last spring’s election than they did in Alberta, grabbing nearly 65 per cent of the vote, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals.

Finally, in B.C., the Liberals are at 51 per cent, compared to 30 for the Conservatives and 12 for the NDP.

This is the latest worrying poll for the Conservatives.

It started with a Mainstreet Research poll that had the party only three points ahead in Alberta.

Then a survey from Leger released earlier this month had the Liberals opening up their biggest nationwide lead since 2016.

The Liberals were the top choice of 49 per cent of decided voters, a 14-point gap over the Conservatives.

Looking at the regional numbers and things appear just as rosy for the Liberals, who have a 23-point lead in Quebec and a 16-point advantage in Ontario.

In Alberta, the Liberals aren’t as close as they were in the Mainstreet survey but are only 19 points behind, a big improvement from the nearly 36-point gap seen in last spring’s election.

An Abacus Data poll released earlier this month has the Liberals holding a more modest six-point national lead and the Conservatives comfortably in front in Alberta by a 57 to 32 per cent margin.