As hostilities in the Middle East grind on for a second week, the human toll and geopolitical ramifications of the war remain of paramount concern. But for investors in the $31 trillion US bond market, the conflict has also served to complicate a defining trade for 2026 that had seemed straightforward: collect interest of around 4% and wait for the Federal Reserve, under its incoming chair, to resume cutting interest rates. While that strategy is still working, risks are on the rise, with more spinning plates to juggle.