UFC 326 picks: Why experts are backing Holloway over Oliveira


The BMF belt will be up for grabs this weekend, as Charles Oliveira challenges the titleholder, Max Holloway, in the main event at UFC 326 on Saturday night.

Holloway is going for his second defense of the ceremonial title. He beat Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision in his last fight in July. Oliveira has lost three of his past six fights but looks to start a new winning streak after beating Mateusz Gamrot by second-round submission in his last Octagon appearance in October.

A panel of four, including former fighters, trainers and analysts, offer picks and insight for the UFC 326 main event.


BMF title fight

Expert takes

This is a hard matchup to pick, but I’m going with my boy Max. I think Max beats Oliveira up on the feet and could get a referee stoppage. I don’t know if Max knocks him out cold, but a TKO is possible. Charles will struggle to keep Max down, and Max will just piece him up when the fight is standing. — Dustin Poirier


I’ve got to go with Max on this one. Over the years, Max has become a much smarter fighter. I think 155 pounds is the right weight class for him. His movement will be the deciding factor against Oliveira. It will allow him to avoid kicks and takedowns from Charles, and he’ll eventually get the ball rolling offensively. And once Max gains momentum, there aren’t many people who can rebound. — Din Thomas


There aren’t many people I would pick in a fight against Holloway right now. He’s just too good, so unless it’s Ilia Topuria, I’m not picking them over Max. I actually think Max is more talented than Topuria, but Topuria has devastating power. So, I’m not holding that Topuria result [a KO loss in 2024] against Max. For the fight against Oliveira, Holloway has incredible takedown defense and one of the highest fight IQs in the sport. Expect him to avoid the spots where Oliveira is at his best and pick Oliveira apart from the outside. — Anthony Smith


This fight is what being a BMF is all about. I love rematches and unfinished business. For Charles to win, I think he has to hurt Max or get a takedown, and Max is not an easy guy to take down. His footwork is so good and he has a great frame for the lightweight division. And he uses his footwork to make his reach even longer. That’s why he switches stances. Between Max’s long reach, his fluidity and volume punching, I think Charles is going to have to hurt him to get it to the ground. As long as they’re fighting on the feet, this matchup will be a field day for Max against Charles’s high guard. — Michael Chiesa



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