Global supply chains have been working well despite abrupt shifts in US trade policy and rising global tensions in 2025. A big reason for this is that companies have improved how goods are shipped and warehoused to keep products flowing around the world. But these supply chains could be tested even more if the trade conflict worsens.

Global supply chains have had a rough go over the past five years.

First, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the flow of goods around the world to a near standstill. Now, an ongoing global trade conflict led by abrupt changes in US trade policy is adding stress on these trade networks.

Any disruptions in global supply chains—at any time—can raise production and shipping costs, lengthen delivery times and, ultimately, increase inflation. Yet a range of indicators show that supply chains worked well in 2025. Let’s take a closer look.

Assessing the health of global supply chains

We can use many indicators to evaluate the state of global supply chains, including:

• manufacturing delivery times
• production backlogs
• inventory levels
• global shipping costs

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses these and other indicators to build its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index.

By the end of 2025, the index remained close to its historical average, indicating little strain on supply chains. For instance, suppliers reported normal delivery times, suggesting no significant shipping delays. Similarly, costs to ship containers declined considerably from their pandemic peaks, indicating minimal pressures on global supply chains (Chart 1).

Shipping costs from China were an exception—they have been somewhat volatile since the beginning of 2024. One reason is that carriers were forced to take longer—and more expensive—routes after Houthi rebels in Yemen began attacking vessels in the Red Sea, which led to a decline in traffic in the Suez Canal. Costs also spiked in the first half of 2025 as manufacturers responded to various announcements of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Still, costs were well below their pandemic peaks.