Numerous nations in the Middle East are being pulled into the current conflict and have received missile attacks from Iran.  I believe the proper Bayesian update is that Brazil is underrated.

The country has plenty of water, and lots of capacity to grow its own food.  It is an agricultural powerhouse.  It is developing more and more fossil fuels.  No neighbor or near neighbor dares threaten it.  You cannot imagine conquering it, because even the government of Brazil has not conquered its own country.

It is big enough that even the United States can push it around to only a limited degree.

Crime rates are high, but on the up side that gives the place a certain resiliency.  People are used to bad events, and society is structured accordingly.  You cannot write of “Brazil falling into dystopia” without generating a laugh.

If immigration bothers you (not my view), Brazil and Brazilian culture is not going to be swamped by people coming from somewhere else.  For better or worse.

Brazil has “stayed Brazil” through both democracy and autocracy.

Worth a ponder.  Here is an FT piece on “Brazil’s Dubai.”