No. 13 Ohio State women’s basketball vs. No. 15 Michigan State: Preview and prediction

On Sunday, the Big Ten women’s basketball regular season comes to a close. Even though the regular season championship-winning UCLA Bruins already received their trophy, Sunday comes with an air of importance thanks to the Big Ten Tournament, specifically, where each team will fall in the 15-team bracket.

For No. 13 Ohio State women’s basketball, there is still a shot at making it into a top-4 seed, which comes with a double-bye straight into the tournament quarterfinals on Friday. However, the No. 15 Michigan State Spartans have some say in the conversation. Thanks to a loss on Saturday for the Maryland Terrapins against the Michigan Wolverines, the Spartans can make it into the fourth spot with a win and a Minnesota Golden Gophers loss to the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Before all the seeds are decided, basketball needs to be played, and the matchup between the Buckeyes and Spartans has the potential for chaos.

Defensive stalemate

Ever since Michigan State hired head coach Robyn Fralick before the 2022-23 season, the top of the Big Ten steals list has been a battle between the Buckeyes and Spartans. This season is the third in a row with Ohio State and Michigan State atop the team average in takeaways because both programs do their best to try to disrupt the other side.

However, all of that intensity seems to cancel itself out.

Last season is a great example. Michigan State traveled to Columbus, where both teams forced at least 21 turnovers per game. The two combined for 23 total. Basically, both teams practice against their defense, and have since the summer, or years back, for the players who stay in the program. So, when the teams come together, points off turnovers are not the most reliable way to score.

Lately, Ohio State has not played a consistently successful half-court offense. Wednesday against the Michigan Wolverines and two weeks ago against the Maryland Terrapins are great examples. In both games, Ohio State went off to a fast lead, with a 28-14 lead against the Wolverines and a 28-15 advantage against the Terps after the respective first quarters. Then there is always a letdown. Against head coach Brenda Frese’s Terrapins, it was a 26-14 third quarter. On Wednesday, Michigan immediately swung the momentum with a 25-12 second quarter.

Shots were missed, but it is also part defensive lapse and opposing coaches’ ability to play a chess game and adjust their offenses. Michigan did that through guard Olivia Olson, who exposed the Buckeyes’ interior defense with a barrage of shots near the basket. Michigan State is not a program with a traditional interior big like the Bruins’ 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, but Sparty does have forward Grace VanSlooten, who can hurt the Buckeyes.

In two games against Ohio State in her nearly four-year career, VanSlooten has consistently strong performances. During the 22-23 non-conference schedule, the then Oregon Duck scored 29 points with nine rebounds. Last season, VanSlooten’s first in East Lansing, it was 19 points and nine rebounds. The 6-foot-3 forward out of Toledo, Ohio, flexes between shooting and hurting teams near the basket, and Olson gave the Spartans a playbook for accomplishing more. The Maize and Blue set screens, created mismatches against the shorter group of Scarlet and Gray guards, and exploited them for high percentage shots. Ohio State cannot afford that on Sunday.

Outside of VanSlooten, Michigan State has a guard who can challenge the Buckeyes, and a second guard who could change the game if available. Big Ten basketball fans have likely heard of Rashunda Jones, who is in her first season with the Spartans. Before moving to East Lansing, Jones spent two seasons being underutilized with the Purdue Boilermakers. Fralick unleashed Jones this season, and her speed and defense are key to the Spartans’ success. Jones’ 2.2 steals per game is a career high and the fifth highest in the conference. Offensively, Jones’ 11.9 points are her best scoring season in three years of Big Ten basketball.

All of that is great for the Spartans, but an ankle injury against the Michigan Wolverines on Feb. 15, 2026, puts a question mark on whether she will play. Jones missed a blowout victory for the Green and White against the Northwestern Wildcats and returned to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers, although she played just three minutes late in the game.

Without Jones on the court, the speed of Michigan State goes down a gear, which does not help against an Ohio State team that averages 77.2 possessions per 40 minutes, which is the quickest pace in Big Ten basketball. When the Spartans faced the Wolverines two weeks prior, Michigan State played at a grueling 78.3 possession pace. That is a close matchup comparison to the Buckeyes since Michigan is third in the conference at 75.4 possessions per game. Without Jones, against the Wildcats, the Spartans had five fewer possessions, which Ohio State fans know is huge when looking at single-possession defeats to Michigan and Maryland.

The other guard to watch, who will be available, is sophomore Kennedy Blair. Last season, Blair played 8.9 minutes per game in 20 appearances and did not see any time when the Spartans played the Buckeyes. This season, though, Blair is a revelation for Michigan State.

Before the season began, guard Theryn Hallock talked about an Achilles injury at media day. Even so, the fast guard still played. Once the calendar flipped to 2026, Hallock stopped, and there are questions around whether she will redshirt or leave with the six-senior Michigan State class. That gave Blair space to play, and the sophomore took advantage of it.

Since Jan. 22, Blair has been on a tear with 16.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 3.4 steals per game. In that span were three double-doubles and four five-steal games. Blair brings intensity to the court by barreling towards the basket, sticking with plays, and usually yelling in celebration. A matchup between Blair and redshirt junior Kennedy Cambridge will be fun to watch, although that fire does lead to mistakes. In that same timeframe, Blair has 4.3 turnovers per game and had eight against the Wolverines, who press like Ohio State.

Projected Lineups

Ohio State

G: Jaloni Cambridge
G: Chance Gray
G: Kennedy Cambridge
G: Ava Watson
C: Elsa Lemmilä

Michigan State

G: Mila Holloway
G: Syla Swords
G: Olivia Olson
G: Brooke Quarles-Daniels
F: Ashley Sofilkanich

Prediction

Avoid blinking on Sunday because this game will be fast. The full court press will not be nearly as effective for the sides, but the Buckeyes will play better inside the paint after the display on Wednesday against the Wolverines. Even so, VanSlooten is hard to stop, and she will have stretches where she hurts the Buckeyes.

Ohio State point guard Jaloni Cambridge will lead the way for the Buckeyes with a double-double of scoring and assists. Outside of her, center Elsa Lemmilä will start better offensively and turn it into a solid game inside the paint against a smaller Spartans team.

It will be another close game, with the Buckeyes stealing a victory in East Lansing, while Kennedy Cambridge goes into the program history books.

LGHL Score Prediction: 83-82 Ohio State

How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
Time: 12 noon ET
Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan
Television: Big Ten Network
Stream: FOX Sports

On the Doorstep of History

On Wednesday, Kennedy Cambridge grabbed three steals for Ohio State, which put the guard at 115 on the season. That tied the program record set by guard Yvette Angel all the way back in 1985. The 41-year old record is likely history if the guard gets only one steal. So far this season, Kennedy Cambridge has not played in a game in which she has not recorded a takeaway.

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