It’s not often that the leaders of two countries which have traded accusations of murder, extortion and terrorism meet only months later on friendly terms.

But amid what he had described as a “rupture in the world order”, Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, will on Monday meet Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, to repair strained ties between their nations.

The visit marks a stark shift by both countries, which have been locked in diplomatic stalemates for more than a year and a half. It comes, however, as both countries find themselves locked in spats with their largest trading partner: the United States.

The India visit marks Carney’s second such trip in as many months. In January, Carney led a delegation of ministers and senior provincial leaders to China in an attempt to reset relations with Beijing, underscoring his government’s efforts to hedge trade uncertainty with the US.

Carney has used much of his time in office signalling to other nations the need to restructure political and economic relations in the face of weakened international institutions and shifting alliances.

Despite sharing the world’s largest unprotected border and one of the most integrated economies on the planet, the US under Donald Trump has repeatedly bullied Canada, prompting Carney to pledge a doubling of Canada’s non-US exports within the next decade – hence his government’s interest in India.

“India is the most populous country in the world right now and by most accounts the fastest growing big economy in the world,” said Partha Mohanram, director of the India Innovation Institute at the University of Toronto. “It’s a tremendous country to hitch your wagon to. Most other economies in the world, even if they’re rich, are extremely stagnant because of demographics. A deal with India gives you a big piece of a fast growing economy.”

‘Both countries feel ill-treated by the US’

Current trade between the two nations is negligible, valued at less than C$15bn, and Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy identifies the country as a key trading partner in the region. Ahead of his visit to Delhi, Carney and his delegation held meetings with business leaders in Mumbai.

A senior Canadian official told the Guardian there was optimism a 10-year, US$2.8bn uranium supply deal could be one of the most significant and concrete outcomes of the trip.

India recently reached a truce with the US after disagreements over market access and India’s high volume of Russian crude imports. But the unpredictability of how the White House respects its own agreements has cast uncertainty over how long that truce might last.

“Misery loves company. Both countries can share the feeling of being ill-treated by the US,” said Mohanram. “But there are also strengths in looking at each other. India is a massive importer of energy. Canada is a massive exporter of energy. Right now, that makes Canada very attractive to India.”

Mohanram says the two countries have significant areas of mutual cooperation and there are “tremendous opportunities” for both leaders.

Much of the groundwork for the visit has been handled by India’s high commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik.

New Delhi is presenting the trip as firmly business-focused and Patnaik says “both the prime ministers are very keen, so the intent is there on both sides” when it comes to strengthening economic ties.

India’s eagerness toward the visit comes in sharp contrast to Justin Trudeau’s blunder-ridden trip in 2018, when he received what many saw as a cool reception from the Indian government. The biggest embarrassment came when Jaspal Atwal, a Sikh separatist supporter convicted in Canada in 1987 for attempting to assassinate a visiting Indian politician, was invited to an event linked to Trudeau’s delegation.

“Relations have transformed over the last few months … Since the last four to five months, we’ve been working very hard to ensure that the relationship is reset to what it was before … This visit will put a stamp on all the activities that have happened to solidify the relationship and to take it to the next level,” Patnaik said ahead of the visit.

Despite Modi’s efforts to focus the trip on trade and business, questions over India’s sustained campaign of transnational repression has put Carney in a challenging position.

In 2023, Trudeau accused India of orchestrating the high-profile assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist and Canadian citizen. In October 2024, Canada expelled India’s high commissioner in Canada, Sanjay Verma and five other Indian diplomats who federal police said were “persons of interest” in a sprawling investigation with links to the Modi government.

In November, the head of Canada’s spy agency said China and India were the main perpetrators of foreign meddling and transnational repression in Canada and as recently as last week, a prominent Sikh activist was warned by police over a credible threat against the lives of his family – a threat he believes came from India.

Shortly before Carney boarded a government plane bound for Mumbai, a senior Canadian official told reporters the government was “confident” that India’s campaign of threats and violence had ended, adding that if they had not, Carney and a high-level delegation “wouldn’t be taking this trip”.

A day later, Canada’s public safety minister, Gary Anandasangaree, admitted to reporters there are “outstanding” security issues with India. “There’s still a lot more work to do, and we will do that work.”