While internal divisions have long been the Victorian Liberal party’s main obstacle to winning government, a new threat is emerging on its right flank: One Nation.

Just four years ago, One Nation received just 8,077 lower house first-preference votes out of more than 3.6m cast in Victoria – equivalent to 0.22% of the total – and won a single seat in the upper house.

But the first batch of polls conducted this year suggests a much stronger showing at this November’s state election, with One Nation commanding anywhere from 11% of first preference votes (Resolve) to as high as 26.5% (Roy Morgan).

It’s a marked jump from late 2025. The final publicly reported poll of that year, conducted by Redbridge/Accent Research, showed that 4% of people were going to vote for a “minor right-wing party” (their latest poll, due soon, will separately categorise One Nation).

There are significant caveats attached to the numbers, including sample sizes, margins of error and methodological limitations. It’s also unclear whether they are an accurate demographic and geographic breakdown of the state. (For one, it’s hard to imagine anyone under 25 answering a number they don’t know and agreeing to a survey. And if they do, it’s unclear whether they would represent most people their age).

One Nation spent the summer campaigning against the Labor government’s bushfire response. In January, it confirmed it will field a candidate in each lower and upper house seat in its “biggest election yet” in Victoria.

The minor party’s focus on the state, combined with the polling surge, has some of the most senior Liberals on edge. Former premier Jeff Kennett earlier this month urged his party to direct preferences to One Nation at the election, and if necessary, govern in minority with them, other minor parties and independents.

Kennett’s intervention has placed pressure on the Liberal party leader, Jess Wilson, to make her position known. She’s repeatedly refused.

“Preference matters are always a matter for the party, and that will be a decision that’s made much closer to the election. We’re still nine months out,” Wilson said at an event on Wednesday.

“It’s not my focus. My focus is getting Victorians to vote number one Liberal or Nationals.”

She’s not wrong – it is still exceptionally early to make such a decision. It wasn’t until mid-November 2022 that the Coalition confirmed it would put Labor last on its how-to-vote-cards, effectively handing the seat of Richmond to the Greens. (Few in the Liberal party believe they will do the same at this election, due to the Greens’ position on the Israel-Gaza war).

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One Liberal source said “the biggest impact” of Liberal preferences will be on Labor-Greens contests, not on One Nation’s electoral chances.

The source, like many others in the party, remain skeptical that One Nation can surpass the Coalition in first preferences. They note in most seats, where the main contest is between Labor and Liberals, One Nation’s votes would flow to one of the two major parties. It’s if those votes end up favouring Labor that it could weaken the Coalition’s chances of winning seats.

As one senior Liberal put it: “The real question is whether One Nation will direct their preferences to us.”

They describe Kennett as being “well respected” and a “party elder” but has “zero influence” on preference arrangements. This power rests firmly with Wilson, a moderate, the executive committee – a body dominated by moderates, including president Philip Davis – and the new state director, Alyson Hannam, widely seen as centre-right.

“We all know the pathway to winning in Victoria is firmly through the centre, not cozying up to extreme bigots,” another senior Liberal said.

They said the moderate grouping had been “quietly working away” to get stronger candidates for the November poll, including by extending nomination periods and recruiting candidates from outside the party.

Preselection contests for upper house seats in March will also see more conservative MPs – including Moira Deeming, Bev McArthur, Renee Heath, Ann-Marie Hermans – challenged as part of efforts to consolidate the party’s centrist appeal. This, however, carries potential consequences.

Federal MP Barnaby Joyce earlier this month revealed multiple MPs from the Victorian Coalition had approached One Nation about defecting. “Of course those discussions are happening,” he said at the time.

Deeming is rumoured to be among them if she loses preselection. Some colleagues speculate a switch could occur even before the vote.

Sources said Bernie Finn – who has joined One Nation after stints with Family First and the Democratic Labour Party after being kicked out of the Liberal party room – could even move regions to clear a path for her.

Any defection from the Coalition would provide One Nation another upper house MP and the associated resources for roughly seven months.

It would also give Labor more ammunition.

Earlier this month, Wilson pulled out of an event headlined by Joyce after the premier, Jacinta Allan, repeatedly accused her of “cosying up” to One Nation. And at parliament last sitting week, when Wilson rebuffed questions on preferences, the minister for multicultural affairs, Ingrid Stitt, issued a statement attempting to link her to Hanson’s recent inflammatory statement about Muslims. It was a long bow.

“Yesterday, Jess Wilson refused to rule out cutting a deal with One Nation. Later that evening, Pauline Hanson went on a hateful and divisive tirade on national television,” Stitt said.

She said Wilson had to “come clean” about whether she would “continue aligning herself” with Hanson or “stand with Victoria’s multicultural communities”.

Stitt said only Labor would protect Victoria’s status as a “proudly multicultural and multifaith state”. This line was repeated by Labor MPs across community lunar new year celebrations that week.

Liberal MPs are well aware of the risks of alienating Victoria’s multicultural communities, which the party has long struggled to win over. They also know they need to win (and hold) inner-Melbourne seats, where Hanson is widely seen as divisive.

What they choose to do next could prove decisive come November.