When Alan Cole saw Elon Musk fans eagerly bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could effectively reduce federal spending in a year, he knew he had to take the bet, according to a story about Cole’s winnings in the Wall Street Journal.

If Cole, an international tax accountant, knew anything in life it was this: federal spending couldn’t be quickly whacked, he told the WSJ. Even if DOGE nixed some federal contracts and laid off workers (which it did), plenty of remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt would remain.

So, he wagered his entire life savings — over $342,000 — to take the counter bet that the U.S. federal budget wouldn’t insta-shrink. He slowly amassed 3% of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million (making a few hedging bets along the way), he told the WSJ.

When the government released the 2025 year-end spending report on February 20, showing increases compared to 2024, Cole walked away with $470,300 and a handsome $128,000 profit.