Midterms are traditionally a referendum on the president, and recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos polling shows that President Donald Trump is a deeply unpopular president who faces negative ratings on handling various issues along with majorities of Americans opposite him on key policy positions. But with Americans not trusting Democrats more than Republicans to handle the country’s most serious issues – registered voters say they would be nearly split between the two parties if they voted today.

Just a week before the first voters head to the polls for primary elections in some states, an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducting using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel finds registered voters in America are roughly split between supporting the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in U.S. House of Representative elections in their congressional district this fall, 47% to 45%.

That gap widens slightly to 4 points among adults overall, 43% for Democrats and 39% for Republicans. These margins are nearly identical to when ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos asked in October.

In a February 2022 ABC News/Washington Post poll, former President Joe Biden had a 37% approval rating and voters preferred Republican candidates in the midterm question by a 7-point margin. That year, Republicans went on to win the House. In a January 2018 ABC/Post poll, Trump had a 36% approval rating and voters preferred Democrats by 12 points. Democrats won the House that year.

Today, Trump’s approval rating is 39%. But Americans don’t trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the country’s problems, the cost of living or immigration. And it’s clear that voters who are skeptical of Trump haven’t bought into Democrats’ messaging, at least yet.

Almost all voters who strongly approve of Trump say they would vote for the Republican candidate if midterms were held today (97%) and 87% of those who approve of him “somewhat” also say they’d vote for Republicans. But while about 9 in 10 of those who strongly disapprove of Trump would vote for the Democratic candidate, among those who somewhat disapprove of the president, 46% would vote for the Republican candidate and 32% would vote for the Democrat in midterms.

Fully 96% of Democratic registered voters support their party’s candidate; a similar 94% of Republican registered voters support their party’s candidate.

Independent voters support Democrats by 15 points, 48% to 33%. In the February 2022 ABC News/Washington Post poll, independent voters preferred Republican candidates by 14 points — and the GOP went on to win in Congress. In the January 2018 poll, independent voters preferred Democratic candidates by the same margin — and Democrats won the House in November.

Nationalizing voting, FBI ballot counting and voter ID laws

Trump has continued to publicly repeat unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, despite all evidence showing that Biden was legally elected and there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud.

Earlier this month, Trump doubled down on his earlier suggestion that the federal government should “get involved” in state elections, arguing that Republicans should “nationalize” elections in response to his continued false claims of voter fraud and refusal to accept his 2020 loss.

Most Americans (54%) oppose the federal government taking over election administration and vote counting in certain states, while only 23% support this.

About 9 in 10 Democrats (88%) along with over half of independents (55%) oppose the federal government taking over election administration in certain states, while just over half of Republicans support this (53%). About two-thirds of MAGA Republicans support it (66%), compared to about 2 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans (21%).

Trump has gone as far in his desire to relitigate the 2020 election as to have the FBI seize ballots from Fulton County, Georgia, where he lost in 2020. That election’s ballots were counted three separate times and the results were affirmed each time.

When asked about the FBI seizing ballots from the 2020 presidential election in Fulton County, Georgia, opposition outweighs support, 45% to 24% with 32% offering no opinion.

While two-thirds of MAGA Republicans support the FBI’s seizure of ballots in Fulton County, only about 2 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans support it with about half saying they have no opinion.

Trump’s repeated and unsubstantiated accusations of rigged voting is also tied to his backing of the “SAVE America Act,” a piece of legislation that passed the House earlier this month. The legislation would restrict mail-in ballots, require photo ID and mandate that states require proof of citizenship when people register to vote in federal elections.

Despite the fact that both voter fraud and noncitizen voting are exceedingly rare problems, Americans are generally in favor of voter ID laws. And the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll finds that most Americans support the SAVE Act’s even more restrictive voter registration ID laws.

About 6 in 10 Americans say they support anyone registering to vote in federal elections to provide proof of U.S. citizenship, while about 2 in 10 oppose this. The question specified that people registering to vote would need to show a U.S. passport, birth certificate with matching photo ID or other official documents verifying citizenship and identity.

Trump and the future of the Republican Party

Despite Trump’s deep unpopularity and negative ratings of his policies and positions, Republicans still largely approve of him and say that their party should follow the president’s leadership, a number that has grown in the latest poll.

The poll finds 71% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say that Republican leaders should follow Trump’s leadership, while 28% say leaders in their party should lead the party in a different direction. The share saying the party should follow Trump has increased from 60% in 2022 and 57% in 2021.

About 9 in 10 self-described Republican MAGA supporters — who make up 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — say the party should follow Trump’s leadership, compared with roughly 4 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans. More than half, 56% of non-MAGA Republicans — who make up 42% of the party — say Republican leaders should lead the party in a different direction.

Methodology – This ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll was conducted via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel, Feb. 12-17, 2026, among 2,589 U.S. adults and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. The error margins are larger among partisan subgroup samples and other subgroups.

See PDF for full results and detailed methodology.

Email ABCNEWS.Polls@abc.com to be added to ABC News’ polling distribution list.

More ABC News polls can be found at abcnews.com. Media contacts: Jeannie Kedas and Van Scott.

Previous releases:

Americans oppose the tactics ICE is using to enforce immigration laws by 2:1 margin

Majority of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling tariffs

Most Americans disapprove of Trump on issues; Americans don’t trust Dems in Congress more to handle problems

Immigration is Trump’s best and worst issue: ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll