dailynewsnblog
Gorton and Denton byelection campaign hits final day with new poll saying it is too close to call who will win
Good morning. It is the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton byelection and a new poll is out which suggests – that it is too close to call, and that the Green party, Labour and Reform UK all have a credible chance of winning.
The data is a bit more specific than that. Opinium has done the poll for Byline Times and Forward Democracy and the figures show a dead heat amongst all voters (the Greens and Labour on 28%, Reform UK on 27%), but the Greens (30%) marginally ahead of Labour and Reform UK (both on 28%) amongst people likely to vote.
This is the second poll suggesting the Greens are marginally ahead. An Omnisis poll at the end of last week had the Greens on 33%, Reform UK on 29% and Labour on 26%. But constituency polling can be very erratic, and most of these leads are within the margin of error, and so the only reliable takeaway with regard to the result is – it’s too close to call.
But there is another takeaway that is reliable. In what traditionally has been a safe Labour seat, there are two insurgent, challenger parties that are competitive. We are used to byelections where one outsider party is doing well, but here Reform UK and the Greens are both potential winners. This is further confirmation that the two-party system has completely broken down, and we are now in an era of multi-party politics.
There is also another, apparently solid finding in the Opinium polling. Adam Bienkov reports in his write-up for Byline Times:
The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour.
Around two thirds (66%) of those Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, compared to just 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters who said they would switch to Labour to defeat Farage’s party.
Commenting on the poll, James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said:
The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign.
We will hear more about this at PMQs.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
Afternoon: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is on a visit where she is talking about the Ofgem price cap announcement.
And the government is publishing its courts and tribunals bill today.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Key events
Energy bills will fall by £117 for millions of households in Great Britain from April
Annual energy bills will fall by £117 for millions of households from April after Rachel Reeves’s plan to cut £150 a year from bills was partly foiled by rising costs, Jillian Ambrose reports.
Gorton and Denton byelection campaign hits final day with new poll saying it is too close to call who will win
Good morning. It is the last full day of campaigning in the Gorton and Denton byelection and a new poll is out which suggests – that it is too close to call, and that the Green party, Labour and Reform UK all have a credible chance of winning.
The data is a bit more specific than that. Opinium has done the poll for Byline Times and Forward Democracy and the figures show a dead heat amongst all voters (the Greens and Labour on 28%, Reform UK on 27%), but the Greens (30%) marginally ahead of Labour and Reform UK (both on 28%) amongst people likely to vote.
This is the second poll suggesting the Greens are marginally ahead. An Omnisis poll at the end of last week had the Greens on 33%, Reform UK on 29% and Labour on 26%. But constituency polling can be very erratic, and most of these leads are within the margin of error, and so the only reliable takeaway with regard to the result is – it’s too close to call.
But there is another takeaway that is reliable. In what traditionally has been a safe Labour seat, there are two insurgent, challenger parties that are competitive. We are used to byelections where one outsider party is doing well, but here Reform UK and the Greens are both potential winners. This is further confirmation that the two-party system has completely broken down, and we are now in an era of multi-party politics.
There is also another, apparently solid finding in the Opinium polling. Adam Bienkov reports in his write-up for Byline Times:
The poll suggests that tactical voting could easily swing the contest, with anti-Reform voters significantly more likely to switch to the Greens than to Labour.
Around two thirds (66%) of those Labour and Liberal Democrat voters surveyed said they would be prepared to switch to the Greens if they were the party most likely to beat Reform, compared to just 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters who said they would switch to Labour to defeat Farage’s party.
Commenting on the poll, James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said:
The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign.
We will hear more about this at PMQs.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
Afternoon: Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is on a visit where she is talking about the Ofgem price cap announcement.
And the government is publishing its courts and tribunals bill today.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
