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While Canada is re-evaluating its multi-billion-dollar contract for 88 Lockheed Martin F-35s due to rising trade tensions and threats from the Trump administration, it has recently moved forward with payments for 14 additional jets (on top of the 16 already committed) to ‘keep options open’. Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that continuing payments for ‘long-lead’ items act as a bargaining chip in broader trade negotiations with the US, according to Policy Magazine.
Payments ensure Canada maintains its place in the F-35 Lightning II’s long global production line, as the CBC covered. Backing out now would mean losing years of progress if the relationship stabilizes. To date, the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) F-35 program has exceeded its original budget by $8 billion, according to The Independent. Canada is currently exploring a split or ‘mixed’ fleet strategy. The NORAD Alliance’s demise would be one of the biggest consequences of Canada’s new path.
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has long served as the foundation for the claim that Canada ought to use the same military equipment and platforms as the United States, given the widespread use of data-link tactical network sharing across numerous Allied platforms made in Europe and other countries. The claim that the F-35 or nothing is the only option is increasingly seen as economic protectionism in 2026, so while the RCAF will get some F-35s, the final total remains to be seen.
The Contender From Across The Pond
Rapidly growing political tensions, as well as disagreements over economic sharing, have opened an opportunity for the Saab JAS 39 Gripen E to rise as a contender. While the Saab Gripen E is praised for its ease of maintenance in the Arctic and lower costs, military leaders argue it lacks the stealth and sensor fusion required to survive against modern ‘near-peer’ threats like Russia or China.
Even though the F-35 Lightning II is far superior to the Saab light fighter in terms of technology and combat performance, the RCAF’s future F-35 fleet is at risk due to the widening gap between the world’s closest allies, which is being exacerbated by President Donald Trump. A revived domestic military industrial aerospace industry for Canada is one of the advantages of the smaller, lighter, simpler, and more ruggedized Saab, despite the fact that the American stealth fighter is a weapons technology powerhouse.
Given the unpredictability of the American supply chain under Donald Trump’s administration, the Canadian government is seriously contemplating reinvesting in domestic aerospace and defense, despite the F-35’s astounding technological advantage over the Gripen E. The CF-105 Arrow, the world’s most sophisticated interceptor, was originally manufactured in Canada. Even now, its contentious 1959 cancellation is a notorious national pride issue.
Canada would have complete sovereign control over mission software and data thanks to the Saab. A cloud-based logistics system housed on US servers is necessary for long-term use of an F-35, which is the underlying concern for partner nations. The whole Canadian air force may be grounded if the US chooses to ‘lock out’ Canada during a trade war. Canada is a ‘vassal’ to US domestic politics since it depends entirely on the American defense industrial base.
The calculations have been altered by the Trump administration’s threats to acquire territory or slap 25% tariffs on Canadian aircraft components. A Canadian Production Center is part of the Saab agreement. This enables Canada to regain the ability to construct complete fighter planes, a capability that was lost with the Avro Arrow. A significant move from integration to autonomy can be seen in the decision to stick with the Saab Gripen for the near future and join the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) for the long run.
Could Canada Choose Sweden’s Gripen Fighter Jet Over The F-35?
Canada’s ‘Plan B’ for air superiority.
The Case For The F-35
Leaders of the Air Force and internal briefings from the Canadian Defence Ministry strongly support the F-35 despite political tensions. This is because of the F-35 program’s close ties to the Canadian aerospace industry as well as the fifth-generation stealth fighter’s unparalleled tactical capability. So far, more than 110 Canadian businesses have contributed to the F-35 supply chain, with about 30 businesses still operating today.
Approximately 2,000 to 3,300 domestic workers are employed by these active enterprises to do F-35-specific jobs. These companies may lose thousands of high-tech jobs and an estimated $10.6 billion USD in future contracts if Canada cancels the remaining 72 jets. Saab offers a 100% value offset, meaning every dollar spent on the jets would be reinvested into the Canadian economy.
Sweden has proposed building these planes in Canada, which might lead to the creation of 12,600 jobs in the country, according to 19fortyfive. Saab proposes building a local production plant in Canada. By doing this, Canada would go from being a supplier of F-35 parts to producing its own frontline fighter. The United States’ influence prevented the Avro Arrow, the pinnacle of that indigenous aerospace expertise, from ever becoming a production aircraft.
Why Might Canada’s F-35 Order Have The US Worried?
The threat to the Lightning II.
Allies Or Wary Customers?
Allies are very alarmed by Trump’s rekindled thoughts about annexing Greenland and proposals to turn Canada into the ’51st state,’ fearing that their dependence on US-controlled software and spare parts exposes them to political pressure. Trump’s ‘America First’ stance and diplomatic ‘hammer’ of tariffs have sped up ‘efforts to achieve defense industrial sovereignty.’ Leaders such as Emmanuel Macron are now openly advocating for the EU to replace F-35s with alternative aircraft like the French Rafale.
Canada has legally committed to and begun payments for the first 16 F-35 aircraft, with the first delivery expected in late 2026. According to reports, Canada has started paying for long-lead components for 14 more F-35s than the initial 16 in order to keep its place in the manufacturing sequence, even though the deal is now officially being reviewed due to public and political concerns in Canada over the reliability of the US as a supplier and ally.
The remaining 72 planes’ status is still uncertain. A rising number of people believe that Canada depends too much on the US defense sector, particularly in light of the US’ reputation as a ‘hostile power’ that threatens annexation. Saab’s Gripen E is being carefully considered by Canada as a replacement for the jet billets that are still unfilled.
Despite political tensions, internal Canadian Defence Ministry reports, and Air Force leaders strongly favor the F-35. Choosing the Saab Gripen for the immediate future and joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) for the long term represents a fundamental shift from integration to autonomy.
Canada & Portugal Rethink Plans To Buy F-35s Due To Trump
Two key NATO allies are reconsidering plans to buy F-35s as a result of Trump Administration communications.
The Cost Of Stealth
By the end of the twenty-first century, the F-35 is expected to have cost more than two trillion dollars, making it the most costly defense project in history. However, that figure takes into account both the massive maintenance costs that the about $3,000 stealth fighters are expected to need over the course of their service life, as well as decades of research and development that went into the first aircraft to come off the line.
For the typical, land-based F-35 fighter plane, the F-35A, the average cost starts at $80 million. That figure rises to more than $100 million for the countries that operate the F-35B, or ‘jump jet.’ The F-35C, the ruggedized carrier variant, costs significantly more to the US Navy. Still, these are only base rates for airframes without engines or any of the ‘all-inclusive packages’ that fall under the foreign military sales (FMS) umbrella.
Economies of scale provide the F-35’s power, which has transformed it from a security tool into a political lever. The F-35 loses its universality if partner countries withdraw from the program. The loss of interoperability means that in the event of a conflict with China, Allied aircraft will not be able to exchange data with ease, regressing air warfare tactics by decades.
The Ultimate Fighter
Examining the 80 years of institutional memory and combat data that went into the F-35’s design is essential to comprehending the impact of recent political changes on the aircraft. The F-35 was created with the goal of bringing NATO and other international partners together by sharing data and technology.
The US learned during WWII that short-legged fighters result in dead bomber crews. Due to pilots’ inability to see the battlefield, the United States lost more than 3,300 aircraft to SAMs and MiGs in Vietnam. The United States learned from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that the ‘god’ of the battlefield is a networked fighter.
All of the qualities refined by legacy fighters have been combined into a single platform with the F-35, which is capable of defeating any known weapon and has the modular capability to upgrade and defeat new threats as they emerge quickly with little downtime.
In order to maintain low costs per unit, the F-35 relies on a worldwide supply chain and large manufacturing volumes. Recent geopolitical unrest, however, has shattered this unity. Spain redirected $10.5 billion into European options such as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and the Eurofighter Typhoon after canceling its multi-billion-dollar F-35 contract in late 2025.
