Hello and welcome to the working week.

I’ve not yet seen the Oscar-nominated One Battle After Another, also a frontrunner in tonight’s Bafta movie awards in London, but I hear it’s a comedy. The world already has too many battles, but none of them are funny.

We begin the week under the cloud of another major global conflict as US President Donald Trump builds up a vast military force in the Middle East. He has warned Iran to reach a deal within a “maximum” of 15 days or “bad things will happen”.

Back in the US, Trump is set to extol his accomplishments, presumably including his belief that he is a peacemaker, when he makes his State of the Union address to Congress on Tuesday, the first of his second term. Several prominent Democrats are planning to boycott the speech.

The same day marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian army casualties have surged, reducing the chances of the battlefield breakthrough President Vladimir Putin seeks. Peace talks last week in Geneva made little progress, but ended with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying he was counting on another round of negotiations this month. In the interim, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chair a video conference of Ukraine’s “coalition of the willing” on Tuesday.

The political battle this week is the UK’s Gorton and Denton by-election, which has the potential to be a humbling defeat for Starmer and his Labour party in one of its (previously) safest seats. Polls have showed voting intentions split between Labour, Reform UK and the Green party. Our Northern England Correspondent Jennifer Williams has found a lot of anger on the doorstep.

We are near the end of the earnings season, but there is a steady stream of results to come before Friday. Air transport is a theme, with British Airways owner IAG, Jet2, Qantas and Heathrow all holding calls. If you want to get a taste of Heathrow’s challenges, read this.

Economic data run is cranking up again after the lunar new year break with a slew of monthly activity surveys (German Ifo, US Consumer Confidence and French business confidence), inflation figures for the US, Germany, France, Japan and Australia, plus a quarterly GDP estimate from India.

The central bankers are also returning to the speaking circuit. In the case of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and colleagues, there is a mandatory requirement to speak as they answer questions from the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee on Tuesday. Full details below.

One more thing . . . 

Think you have antisocial working hours? Then watch out for the jury trial set to start in New York this week of Centerview Partners. This elite New York M&A advisory boutique is being sued by former junior analyst Kathryn Shiber for allegedly violating US disability laws. In 2020 Centreview fired Shiber just three weeks after agreeing to let her have a guaranteed nine-hour period in which to sleep each night to treat her mood and anxiety disorder if she was available to work the other 15 hours a day, seven days a week. Read more in this in-depth FT analysis.

Talking of taking time off, thank you to everyone who sent me suggestions for ways to escape the rat race, including some delightful pictures of Caribbean retreats. I’m still open to suggestions (even if they are beyond my price bracket) if you want to email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, by hitting reply. However you are spending the next few days, have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor takes part in a Deutsche Bank hosted fireside chat

• JPMorgan Chase hosts a webcast from New York to provide a company update, including Q&A sessions with executive management members

• Deadline set by Warner Bros Discovery for Paramount to make a “best and final” offer to top Netflix’s agreed $83bn takeover bid or step aside. However Paramount’s $108bn offer last week cleared a key US antitrust hurdle.

• China: Chinese New Year public holiday continues. Financial markets closed until tomorrow

• Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index

• Israel: interest rate announcement

• Japan: Emperor’s birthday national holiday. Financial markets closed

• Earnings calls: Dominion Energy Q4/FY, Domino’s Pizza Q4/FY, Hims & Hers Q4/FY, Keysight Technologies Q1, LendLease HY, MONY FY

Tuesday

• The UK parliament’s Treasury Committee takes evidence from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, chief economist Huw Pill and Monetary Policy Committee external members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor on the latest quarterly monetary policy report

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and CEO Austan Goolsbee will speak at the 42nd annual economic policy conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington

• France: INSEE February business confidence surveys

• Hungary: interest rate announcement

• US: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• Earnings calls: American Tower REIT Q4/FY, Axon Enterprise Q4/FY, Brooks Macdonald HY, City of London Investment Group HY, ConvaTec FY, Croda FY, Ferguson Enterprises Q2, GoDaddy Q4/FY, Home Depot Q4/FY, HP Q1, Keurig Dr Pepper Q4/FY, McBride HY, ONEOK Q4/FY, Standard Chartered Q4/FY, Telefonica Q4/FY, Unite FY

Wednesday

• FT Business of Football Summit begins online and at the Peninsula Hotel in London, continuing tomorrow. Register here

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at Melbourne University Faculty of Economics & Business Foundation Dinner

• Australia: January consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• EU: January harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Germany: revised Q4 GDP estimate

• Japan: January services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Earnings calls: Adecco Q4/FY, Ageas FY, Agilent Technologies Q1, Alcon FY, Aston Martin Lagonda FY, Diageo HY, E.ON FY, Ferrovial FY, Fortescue HY, Fresenius FY, Haleon FY, Hammerson FY, Heathrow FY, Hiscox FY, HSBC FY, Iberdrola FY, Jet2 trading update, Lowe’s Q4/FY, Manchester United Q2, Morgan Sindall FY, NVIDIA Q4/FY, Salesforce Q4/FY, St James’s Place FY, Shaftesbury Capital FY, TJX Q4/FY, Victorian Plumbing AGM trading update, Urban Outfitters Q4/FY, Wolters Kluwer FY, Zoom Q4/FY

Thursday

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives her views to the quarterly monetary dialogue with the European Parliament committee on economic and monetary affairs

• Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor for monetary policy at the Bank of England, chairs a panel at the Bank of England and UK Women in Economics Network annual networking event

• Australia: January labour force statistics

• Earnings calls: Allianz FY, AXA FY, Bouygues FY, Clariant Q4/FY, CVS Group HY, Dell Technologies Q4/FY, Derwent London FY, Deutsche Telekom Q4/FY, Drax FY, Genus HY, Getlink FY, Howden Joinery FY, Intuit Q2, JM Smucker Q3, Jupiter Fund Management FY, London Stock Exchange Group FY, Man Group FY, Mobico FY (unaudited), Ocado FY, Puma FY, Qantas Airways HY, Rolls-Royce FY, Royal Bank of Canada Q1, SBA Communications Q4/FY, Stellantis FY, Tate & Lyle Q3 trading statement, Vanquis Banking Group FY, Veolia Environnement FY, WPP FY

Friday

• Ashtead’s transfer of primary listing to the US is expected to become effective, with Sunbelt Rentals becoming the holding company for Ashtead Group

• Huw Pill, Bank of England chief economist, takes part in the Elgin Advisory and Society for Professional Economists ‘UK & US economics’ webinar as a panellist.

• France: February CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: February CPI and HICP inflation rate data, plus January labour market statistics

• India: Q3 GDP estimate

• Switzerland: Q4 GDP estimate

• UK: GfK consumer confidence survey

• US: January PPI inflation rate data

• Earnings calls: AES Q4/FY, Delivery Hero Q4 trading update, Hays HY trading update, IAG FY, Melrose Industries FY, Pearson FY, Rathbones FY, Rightmove FY, Swiss Re FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Mauritius: US officials will hold bilateral security discussions with their Mauritian counterparts on the continued use of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia. This three-day meeting follows an agreement finalised last year between the UK and Mauritius, which sees the UK hand over the Chagos islands to Mauritius

• Russia: Defender of the Fatherland Day. President Vladimir Putin is expected to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow

• UK: London Fashion Week concludes

Tuesday

• Fourth anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine

• Publication of Women, Business and the Law 2026, a World Bank report into the legal and policy factors shaping women’s access to economic opportunities

• Thailand: Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development, an annual UN intergovernmental forum to review progress on sustainable development goals (SDGs) regionally, running until Friday

• UK: Launch event for the Military Balance, an annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London

• US: President Donald Trump gives his State of the Union speech to Congress

Wednesday

• Japan: Asia Energy Security Seminar, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to promote Japan’s energy security activities. This year’s event will focus on the role of diplomacy with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas

• UK: senior policymakers, business leaders and international security experts for a day and a half conference online and in person at Chatham House in London to discuss international security and defence challenges

Thursday

• UK: Gorton and Denton by-election.

• US: former secretary of state Hillary Clinton is due to appear at filmed and transcribed House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform deposition as part of investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will testify tomorrow

Friday

• Taiwan: Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday

• US: Public memorial for civil rights campaigner and politician Jesse Jackson, lying in state, ahead of a Homegoing Service tomorrow in Chicago

Saturday

• Six of our solar system’s planets — Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Neptune, Venus and Mercury — will be visible in the night sky of the northern hemisphere in a “parade” after sunset

• UK: The BRIT Awards 2026, aka The Brits, hosted by actor and comedian Jack Whitehall in Manchester’s Co-op Live arena

• US: Berkshire Hathaway annual report to be published, including CEO Greg Abel’s annual letter to shareholders on the company’s performance last year

Sunday

• First day of meteorological spring in the northern hemisphere

• UN Security Council monthly presidency rotates from the UK to the US.

• China: Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent

• UK: St David’s Day, celebrated on the date the Patron Saint of Wales died in AD589

• South Korea: Samil Jeol, also known as March 1st Movement Day, a national holiday commemorating the 1919 uprising against colonisation by Japan