A middleweight title shot could be at stake for the winner of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event in Houston. Former UFC champion Sean Strickland looks to bounce back against red-hot contender Anthony Hernandez.

Strickland (29-7) has a new path to the middleweight title after Khamzat Chiamev became champion. Strickland was unlikely to get a third crack at Dricus du Plessis after two failed attempts. But Chimaev vs. Strickland is a fresh matchup. Between Strickland’s No. 3 middleweight ranking and name value, it’s feasible he could sneak ahead of the more deserving title challenger Nassourdine Imavov. Strickland has to beat Hernandez before those conversations can start. Oddsmakers think that’s a tall task; Strickland disagrees.

“He has been steamrolling guys that I could f—ing write a clinic on,” Strickland told CBS Sports’ Brian Campbell before the fight. “So, no, he’s not [on my level].”

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Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC) is ready for his breakout moment after taking the long road through the division. “Fluffy” was won eight consecutive fights with six finishes. He’s days away from potentially having the third longest middleweight win streak in UFC history. Beating Strickland would be the biggest accomplishment of his career, and puts him on par with Imavov as the most deserving middleweight title challenger. In fact, “Fluffy” would arguably have a better case than Imavov, boasting a longer win streak and just as many wins over former UFC champs.

“I think if you beat a former champ, that really makes a statement because everybody is really good here,” Hernandez said. “Someone who has already done that shit, you go out there and take him out? You are sitting in a really good place.”

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UFC Fight Night also features two perennial contenders looking to protect their places in the pecking order. Geoff Neal (No. 12) battles the tenacious Uros Medic, and Dan Ige (No. 14) tries to snap Melquizael Costa’s five-fight win streak. Both veterans approach fight night renewed after overcoming personal health issues. For Neal, a five-year battle with substance abuse. For Ige, eye injuries before the Patricio Pitbull fight. 

“I didn’t have the energy for anything. I didn’t prepare right. The weight cuts were terrible,” Neal told CBS sports this week. “There was a point before all that shit happen, I’d run for an hour at a seven mile pace. I’m knocking out eight point six miles in an hour. I’m trying to get back to the old me.”

“I had trauma to my eyes,” Ige said. “My mindset going into that fight was, ‘I don’t know if I’ll ever fight again.’ I didn’t know what I was dealing with. I didn’t want a way out of the fight. I knew if I went to a doctor, they would tell me not to fight. That’s my ego and my pride. I’ve battled with that for a long time. I probably should’ve addressed it, but I didn’t… It’s something I’ve always battled, but I’m getting better with it. I have a better relationship with myself and my thoughts. Things are night and day different.” 

Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Feb. 21 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Toyota Center — Houston
Stream: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as little as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez: I’m surprised with how far apart the odds are. Hernandez is taking a meaningful step up in competition against arguably the division’s most frustrating defensive fighter. Strickland has elite experience and is uniquely equipped to limit his opponent’s offense. Hernandez also has serious gaps in his defensive striking that Strickland can exploit. That being said, I’ll side with the rising tide. Hernandez is a menace when he has grappling control and half guard on the ground. Strickland did a fantastic job stuffing du Plessis’ takedowns and getting off the mat quickly. “Fluffy” lacks DDP’s physicality, but makes up for it with tenacious chain wrestling and far better top control. Hernandez will have a tough time taking Strickland down. When he does, he’ll make the most of it. Enough to win a close decision against a former champ who can certainly play spoiler. Pick: Hernandez via Split Decision

Who wins Strickland vs. Hernandez, and which UFC best bet of over +500 should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model which showed a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights from 2023-25, and find out.