The federal Conservatives are reeling from the loss of a third MP in the past four months, raising renewed questions about Pierre Poilievre’s control of caucus and his grip on the leadership.

A Conservative MP told iPolitics that Poilievre’s support in caucus has clearly fallen since the election and it would drop further if the Liberals are able to cobble together enough floor-crossers to push them across the 172-seat majority threshold in the House.

The MP, who was granted anonymity to share their concerns freely, likened Poilievre’s predicament to his predecessor Erin O’Toole, who was ousted as leader in a caucus vote in early 2022.

That vote happened several months after the September 2021 election in which O’Toole kept the Liberals to a minority but was unable to make gains for the party.

The MP said that after the vote some 30 per cent of caucus wanted O’Toole gone, while another 30 per cent could’ve been swayed.

Poilievre, they said, is “probably in the same situation,” and the longer he goes without an election, the more difficult it will be to “keep the unity.”

The Liberals’ poaching of Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux on Wednesday puts the party at 169 seats in the House.

But there are currently three vacancies that if filled by Liberals would put that party at the majority threshold of 172.

Two of those seats are in Ontario and considered safe ridings for the party. The other is in Terrebonne, where the Liberals won by a single vote in last April’s election.

There could also be a coming byelection in the Montreal riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie.

NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice is rumoured to be considering running for Québec solidaire in the Quebec provincial election this fall.

He’s reportedly weighing a bid to run for the party in Gouin. However, the QS recently passed a resolution to nominate only women or non-binary people in ridings currently held by the party.

QS spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois won Gouin by over 45 points in the last election in 2022.

A source with the NDP told iPolitics that “nothing at all is set in stone” on Boulerice’s future.

The third floor-crossing by a Conservative MP has ignited new rumours about potential future defections.

Even with Jeneroux and a sweep of the three vacant seats, the Liberals would face difficult math in the House.

Because the speaker is a Liberal, the party could only count on 171 votes in most situations. That’s the same number of seats the opposition parties would jointly hold.

While the speaker would vote to break a tie, convention states they must vote to continue debate. That would help the government in non-confidence votes but could thwart efforts to curtail debate to speed up the passage of legislation.

Several Conservative MPs have been rumoured as potential defectors, but it’s unclear if it’s baseless speculation or something more concrete.

Quebec MP Joel Godin, one of several names floated as a possible floor-crosser, told iPolitics on Wednesday that he was staying with the Conservatives.

Another big question looming over the Conservative leadership picture is Poilievre’s popularity.

A poll released earlier this week by Abacus Data showed that among all voters Poilievre’s approval rating stands at – 7.

A Mainstreet Research poll from earlier this month showed that 54 per cent had an unfavourable view of the Conservative leader, while 42 per cent had a favourable impression.

But Poilievre easily cleared his mandatory leadership review at last month’s Conservative convention, winning the support of 87.4 per cent of delegates.

This wasn’t a vote of the party rank-and-file but rather by delegates selected by Conservative riding associations.

The Conservative MP said Poilievre’s supposed popularity with the party base seems out of line with the sentiment among voters and caucus.

“At the convention, he got 87.4 per cent of the vote. That’s not really what I felt in the caucus, nor what I feel on the ground,” the MP said.

“So, I’m not sure how that result came.”

Despite the issues, the MP said Poilievre’s “definitely not going to step down,” even if the Liberals get enough seats to push off an election until 2028 or 2029.

“He’s not going to relinquish power. He’s worked too hard for too long.”